Turkey's COVID-19 Situation Is "Out Of Control", Health Experts Warn

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Turkey's COVID-19 Situation Is "Out Of Control", Health Experts Warn

Via AhvalNews.com,

Health experts have warned that Turkey’s coronavirus situation is out of control and that deaths from the disease could soon be on a par with Italy or Spain, reported the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network on Tuesday.

“The recent data on cases and death tolls shows that the s

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ituation is out of control in Turkey. If the necessary measures are not taken, Turkey will be like Italy or Spain, where the daily death toll is in the hundreds,” Emrah Altındiş, a Turkish professor from Harvard University’s Medical Faculty, told BIRN.

Turkey only reported its first coronavirus patient on March 11, but cases and deaths have rapidly risen since then. The Turkish health minister confirmed on Tuesday seven more deaths due to the coronavirus and announced 343 new cases, raising the total number of cases in the country to 1,872.

Turkey has halted incoming flights from dozens of countries and closed a wide range of non-essential businesses and venues, and announced a curfew on elderly and vulnerable citizens over the weekend, though it has refrained from enforcing a full lockdown.

However, some medical experts have said that the measures are insufficient.

Altındiş said that South Korea was successful in restraining the pandemic because it was testing 20,000 a day, and that China reduced transmission by shutting down the infected city of Wuhan – but he said that there had not been widespread testing or strict lockdowns of major cities in Turkey. 

“Either the government is hiding the real numbers [of cases], or silly things are happening in Turkey,” he said.

“The Turkish government is making propaganda to show that the process is being managed well. They know this situation will have very severe political and economic consequences.”

The Health Ministry has tested more than 24,000 people, but this number may quickly rise after the arrival of 50,000 quick diagnostic kits from China on Monday. A further 300,000 are expected to arrive on Thursday, the ministry said.

The Turkish Medical Association (TTB) urged the government on March 23 to be more transparent regarding the pandemic.

“The cities and towns where cases were confirmed should be announced publicly as well as death and infected people’s gender and age range,” TBB said.

One doctor who works in a university hospital told BIRN under condition of anonymity: “What I observe in my hospital and the general situation is that the real numbers are at least two to three times higher than the numbers that the government announced. The COVID-19 pandemic is now out of control.”

The same doctor said the Turkish Health Ministry seemed to be implementing a wait-and-see policy, but this meant it was late in implementing necessary steps.

“It seems that this week is the most critical since the incubation period for the new coronavirus is around 14 days,” he said. “Many people will flock to hospitals and we will be speaking of thousands of cases and hundreds of deaths on a daily basis. Turkey will be a second Italy or worse,” he told BIRN.

The government has introduced a a 100 billion lira ($15.4 billion) aid package to help Turkey's economy cope with the global coronavirus outbreak, but some economists and opposition politicians have criticised it as being insufficient.

“The government has asked people to stay at home but these people have to work and feed their families,” the doctor told BIRN.

“The government’s economic package has had no effect on ordinary people. If it does not support these people financially, we cannot talk about stopping this pandemic.”

Tyler Durden

Thu, 03/26/2020 - 02:00

Don't be fooled, experts warn, America's anti-child-abuse EARN IT Act could burn encryption to the ground

logicfish Security dont fooled experts warn americas anti-child-abuse earn could burn encryption ground All https://go.theregister.co.uk   Discuss    Share
Wait, a proposed law tackling the sexual abuse of kids and they name it... the EARN IT Act? Seriously?

On Thursday, a bipartisan group of US senators introduced legislation with the ostensible purpose of combating child sexual abuse material (CSAM) online – at the apparent cost of encryption.…


Fiat-Chrysler Latest To Warn Of Looming Supply-Chain Chaos As White House Says 'Don't Worry'

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Fiat-Chrysler Latest To Warn Of Looming Supply-Chain Chaos As White House Says 'Don't Worry'

During an interview with Fox Business on Thursday morning, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin tried to reassure investors that the outbreak wouldn't seriously disrupt the supply chains of western companies, even as hundreds of factories in China plan to remain shuttered until at least mid-February, though it's possible that these closures could last for much longer if Bei

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jing fails to get its arms around the outbreak.

"At this point, we haven't seen big issues with regards to supply chains amid coronavirus outbreak,"  Mnuchin told FBN.

Be advised: when it comes to global supply chains, the outbreak is already wreaking havoc. But with stocks back at record highs, markets appear to be shrugging off this risk.

Yesterday, we reported that Foxconn, the most important Apple supplier which oversees the assembly of most of its iPhones, won't restart production until late February, at the earliest.

And earlier, the FT published a report claiming that Fiat-Chrysler might be forced to halt production at one of its European plants if the virus doesn't clear up within the next week or two. The company is already struggling to source parts from China.

Four of the automaker's suppliers have been impacted by China's decision to shut down much of its industrial sector as part of a quarantine that's expected to take a huge chunk out of GDP growth in the first half.

FCA CEO Mike Manley said four of the company's suppliers in China had already been affected by the outbreak, including one "critical" maker of parts putting European production at risk. "We’ve got one high risk supply at the moment that we have identified," he told the FT.

FCA will know "whether supply will be halted for one of our [European] plants" within two to four weeks, he added without identifying which plants he was referring to.

Three other component makers "will also become critical" if certain suppliers remain shuttered until March.

Toyota, Hyundai, Volvo and PSA have already warned that the factory closures in China risk disrupting production.

Within FCA, Manley has assigned a team to monitor potential disruptions in the supply chain, and propose alternative sourcing. But that process will take time because new components would need to be certified and registered if the company makes a long-term shift to new suppliers.

Toyota's COO said Thursday that the company was carefully auditing its supply chains to determine potential vulnerabilities. France's PSA claimed it was feeling "production tensions" but nothing more than that. Analysts at Goldman also disagree with Mnuchin, having projected a baseline scenario of 2pp drag on Q1 growth.

But as Wilbur Ross theorized last week, short-term supply chain pain might have long-term benefits for the US: since it might encourage companies to move more jobs back to North America, where the risks of these types of outbreaks is much lower.

Tyler Durden

Thu, 02/06/2020 - 13:10


Business Finance


40 Privacy Groups Warn That Facial Recognition Is Threatening Democracy

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40 Privacy Groups Warn That Facial Recognition Is Threatening Democracy

Authored by Derrick Broze via TheMindUnleashed.com,

On Monday, forty organizations signed a letter calling on an independent government watchdog to recommend a ban on U.S. government use of facial recognition technology.

The letter was drafted by the digital privacy advocacy group Electronic Privacy Information C

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enter (EPIC) and signed by organizations including the Electronic Frontier Foundation, Color of Change, Fight for the Future, Popular Resistance, and the Consumer Federation of America. The letter calls on the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board (PCLOB) torecommend to the President and the Secretary of Homeland Security the suspension of facial recognition systems, pending further review.

The PCLOB was originally created in 2004, as an independent agency that advises the administration on privacy issues.

The Congress specifically found that new surveillance powers ‘calls for an enhanced system of checks and balances to protect the precious liberties that are vital to our way of life and to ensure that the Government uses its powers for the purposes for which the powers were given’,” the letter states.

The organizations challenge the PCLOB to “examine the more significant public concerns about the use of facial recognition in public spaces.” They also call on the board to address concerns that facial recognition software can be used by “authoritarian governments to control minority populations and limit dissent could spread quickly to democratic societies.

The letter from EPIC mentions a recent New York Times investigation of a facial recognition service used by more than 600 law enforcement agencies across the country.  As the Mind Unleashed recently reported, Manhattan-based Clearview AI is collecting data from unsuspecting social media users and the Chicago Police Department (CPD) is using the controversial facial recognition tool to pinpoint the identity of unknown suspects. The Times investigation shows that the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security are also using the controversial tool.

The MIT Technology Review believes EPIC’s letter is one of the biggest efforts so far in the fight to stem the use of facial recognition technologies.

And while these 40 organizations call on the PCLOB to make an official recommendation, there are already examples of push back against facial recognition. San Francisco and Somerville, Massachusetts recently became the first local governments to ban the use of facial recognition tools. The European Commission is also considering a ban on facial recognition in public for five years. In June 2019, the Georgetown Law Center on Privacy & Technology released a report titled “America Under Watch: Face Surveillance in the United States” which calls for a moratorium on facial recognition technology.

In June 2019, I also noted that “the editorial board of the Guardian also recently spoke out about the privacy threats, calling the technology ‘especially inaccurate and prone to bias.’ The editorial board also noted that a recent test of Amazon’s facial recognition software by the American Civil Liberties Union found that it falsely identified 28 members of Congress as known criminal.

Whether or not the PCLOB or some other government agency chooses to take action on a moratorium on facial recognition, it is imperative that consumers begin educating themselves about the technology and take steps to protect their privacy. While we are limited in how often our faces are scanned in public, we can voluntarily opt-out of facial scanning at airports, grocery stores, and other locations.

We cannot depend on the government to protect our privacy and liberty. We must take action and guard what little privacy remains before it’s too late.

Tyler Durden

Sun, 02/02/2020 - 23:00


Technology Internet


Senior health tech pros warn NHS England: Be transparent with mass database trawl or face public backlash

logicfish Business senior health tech pros warn england transparent with mass database trawl face public backlash All https://go.theregister.co.uk   Discuss    Share
Son of Care.Data? Remember what happened to that first initiative. It didn't end well

Senior healthcare techies have warned England's National Health Service (NHS) that it will need to be open with industry professionals and the wider general public as it forges ahead with the collation and potential sale of millions of Brits' medical records via a mega database.…


Attempts to define international infosec rules of the road bogged down by endless talkshops, warn diplomats

logicfish Security attempts define international infosec rules road bogged down endless talkshops warn diplomats All https://go.theregister.co.uk   Discuss    Share
Do you want Russia or China writing treaties on what's cool online?

FIC 2020  International progress on state-level so-called cybersecurity "norms" is hopelessly bogged down in an explosion of NGOs and internal United Nations rivalries between two overlapping groups, a French security conference heard this week.…


Chinese Officials Warn Of "Virus Mutation Spreading" - 440 Cases Confirmed, 9 Dead

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Chinese Officials Warn Of "Virus Mutation Spreading" - 440 Cases Confirmed, 9 Dead

Update (2130ET): North Korea has temporarily closed its borders to foreign tourists, two major operators of tours to the isolated country said, in an apparent effort to seal itself off from a new virus causing global health worries.

*  *  *

Update (2115ET): Chinese officials have ju

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st held a press conference that was anything but the usual CDC "everything's ok" statement. The particularly ominous warning that the virus is mutating and spreading is perhaps due to the poor handling of the SARS breakout in 2002/3 which was marked by cover-ups and official reluctance to share information.

Li Bin, vice head of China's National Health Commission, confirmed there are 440 confirmed coronavirus cases in this new outbreak and there have been 9 deaths. Some 1,394 patients are under medical observation.

Officials also confirmed Wuhan airport will have screening equipment (and Wuhan citizens have been asked to limit travel) and a nationwide monitoring system is being put in place (one wonders if the social credit score will go down if a citizen contracts the deadly disease).

Finally, the officials said that they will disclose information in a timely and public way and are doing their best to curb the spread of the disease.

And all of this is happening as hundreds of millions prepare to travel for the New Year's celebrations.

“A wave of panic has struck,” said Zhuang Jiapeng, a fund manager at Shenzhen JM Capital Co. “People may feel the urge to bolt after northbound saw its largest selling in months -- foreign buying has been perceived as something of a safety valve. With the virus spreading, there may be a real impact on consumption during the holidays.”

Long facemasks; Short rats (2020 is year of the rat).

*  *  *

Update (1920ET): Just like we saw during past outbreaks of disease in China, a panicked population has bought up face-masks at such a frantic rate that several of their unscrupulous countrymen have resorted to gouging.

American brand 3M, a popular manufacturer of facemasks in China, has already sold out on its official online stores on e-commerce platforms Taobao and JD.com .

Meanwhile, guards at the Wuhan airport pointed electronic thermometers at travelers, with plans to segregate anybody showing a fever, an early symptom of the virus.

Several unscrupulous sellers who bought up masks en bulk are now managing to sell them for more than 10 times their original price. Some retailers were selling the masks for as much as 40 yuan ($7), a more than 10-fold mark-up. Users of Weibo, a Chinese social network similar to Twitter, warned anybody planning to travel to instead consider staying home, and repeatedly washing their hands.

According to certain sites that track prices of Chinese goods, the masks typically sell for 53 cents.

At one pharmacy in Shanghai, a shopkeeper named Liu Zhuzhen said more than 100 people had bought masks by noon on Tuesday. They sold out again after a re-stocking.

* * *

Update (1600ET): Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Zhejiang, Henan, Chongqing, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Seoul, Tokyo, Brisbane, Taipei - and now Washington State.

The viral pneumonia-like lung illness first discovered late last year in Wuhan, a mid-sized Chinese city in the center of the country, has Beijing's leadership - who are already grappling with slowing economic growth and continuing trade pressure from the US - very much on edge.

It's clear now that Beijing's initial response to reports of a new SARS-like virus was to dissemble. After initially insisting that there was no evidence that the virus could be spread by humans, health officials have now admitted that they were "wrong", and that human-to-human transmission is possible, meaning that there's no telling yet just how contagious this thing really is.

It's already spread rapidly: In just a few weeks, it's gone from a few isolated cases in Wuhan to nearly 300 confirmed cases, not just in Greater China, but also across the Asia-Pacific region, and now in the US. The fact that the CDC has already identified the first case in Washington State suggests that this is an aggressive pathogen, and health officials are duly concerned.

It has already confounded expectations. The fact that 139 cases - roughly half the total number reported - were only just identified over the weekend is especially unnerving, because now infected hosts have had time to scatter back to wherever they're from, potentially spreading the virus across the planet.

According to Bloomberg, the US case has been revealed to be a man in his 30s who returned to the US last week, but not before visiting a public market in Wuhan...

The sudden spike in cases has prompted airports in the US, Australia and elsewhere to tighte illnesses has prompted tightened borders and a rapid attempt to trace contacts of those who have become ill.

On Wednesday, the World Health Organization will decide whether this crisis qualifies as a public health emergency of international concern, a label signifying only the most complex pathologies with the potential to cross borders. The WHO could recommend that travel be restricted, or that global governments take other drastic measures.

With global health officials on high alert, local authorities in Wuhan have announced that the city has 800 hospital beds ready in three separate designated care hospitals, and it's ready to have 1,200 prepared at short notice, according to local media reports.

With the Chinese New Year travel season about to begin, many fear that millions of Chinese traveling abroad or internally for vacation will help the virus spread at an exponential rate. Chinese health officials have played down the possibility of this. But they also say they don't want to underestimate it. After all, the last major outbreak, SARS in 2003, killed 800 people.

* * *

Update (1335ET): The CDC has confirmed that a traveler from China has been diagnosed in Seattle with the Wuhan Coronavirus.

The patient, who was hospitalized with pneumonia last week, recently had traveled to Wuhan, China, where the outbreak appears to have originated, federal officials have found.

Officials declined to identify the patient, who was said to be quite ill.

Additionally, on a conference call, the CDC confirmed it expects more US cases to come.

The outbreak began at a market in China and now has spread to at least four other countries, and  has killed at least six people and sickened hundreds more in Asia.

Broadly speaking, stocks are getting hammered on this but there is one silver lining however, prices for flu-shot manufacturers are soaring: Nanovaricides +240%, Novavax +53%, Inovio Pharma +10%, and Vaxart +14%.

*  *  *

CNN's AnneClaire Stapleton (@AnneClaireCNN) tweeted an ominous warning:

"The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is expected to announce this afternoon that the first case of Wuhan coronavirus has been reported in the United States, in Washington state, a federal source outside the CDC tells CNN."

And the market reacted rapidly...

Transports are the worst hit on the day, already suffering from coronavirus fears overnight...

Can The Fed just print up some anti-virus?

As we detailed earlier, the global risk-off wave had started in the overnight hours of Monday as the full extent of the Chinese coronavirus scare became apparent to traders, has rolled into the cash session Tuesday with airline, casino and gaming, hotel, and travel stocks, taking a leg lower.

Delta Air -3.50%, United Airlines Holdings -3.20%, Southwest Airlines -1.5%, and American Airlines Group -2.50%, were all sold as the outbreak may crimp global air travel during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday period.

Investors dumped Wynn Resorts -4.45%, Las Vegas Sands Corp -4%, and MGM Resorts International -3%, as the virus threatens to decrease foot traffic. 

Hotels were also sold, Wyndham Hotels and Resorts -1%, Choice Hotels International -1%, and Extended Stay America -1%.

Travel stocks were dumped, Expedia Group -1%, Booking Holdings -2.20%, TripAdvisor Inc -1%, and Trip.com -10%.

Investors are unloading sensitive travel stocks because confirmed cases of coronavirus have tripled since Monday and spread to other countries around China with the risk of spreading across the world. 

Fears of a 2002-03 outbreak of SARs has been on everyone’s mind to start the week – and with a Lunar New Year holiday fast approaching – the spread of the virus could broaden in the days ahead.

Travel sensitive stocks have taken a beating in Asia, Europe, and the US – basically across the world on Tuesday, as investors brace for new cases of the virus that is quickly spreading.

Could this mean world stocks are due for a pullback? 

Tyler Durden

Wed, 01/22/2020 - 04:25

WTF, EFS? Experts warn Windows encryption could spawn nasty new ransomware

logicfish Security experts warn windows encryption could spawn nasty ransomware All https://go.theregister.co.uk   Discuss    Share
Redmond's own security tools could be abused to create hard-to-scrub infections

The encryption technology Microsoft uses to protect its own file system could also be turned into a weapon for ransomware attackers.…


Don't pay off Ryuk ransomware, warn infoseccers: Its creators borked the decryptor

logicfish Security dont ryuk ransomware warn infoseccers creators borked decryptor All https://go.theregister.co.uk   Discuss    Share
Oracle DBs particularly vulnerable to fake decryptions, say researchers

If you're an Oracle database user and are tempted to pay off a Ryuk ransomware infection to get your files back, for pity's sake, don't. The criminals behind it have broken their own decryptor, meaning nobody will be able to unlock files scrambled by the malicious software.…


"We're Sitting Ducks" - Australian Politicians Warn Of Threat From Chinese Regime

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"We're Sitting Ducks" - Australian Politicians Warn Of Threat From Chinese Regime



Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,





More than a dozen Australian senators voted Tuesday calling for an investigation into Australia’s relationship with China, with one politician saying that Australia is a “sitting duck” to foreign influence from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).




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“We’re sitting ducks here. We’re leaving ourselves open and we’re letting the Communist Party in China come in here and undermine our democracy,” Jacqui Lambie, an independent Australian senator, said late Tuesday in response to a motion to start a Senate inquiry into Australian’s relationship with China.








Assange "Could Die In Prison" Without Urgent Medical Care, 60+ Doctors Warn

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Assange "Could Die In Prison" Without Urgent Medical Care, 60+ Doctors Warn

Authored by Julia Conley via CommonDreams.org,

Following an urgent warning from an expert at the United Nations earlier this month that Julian Assange's mistreatment in prison may amount to life-threatening torture, more than 60 doctors from around the world Monday called on officials in the United Kingdom to act immediately to ensure the WikiLeaks found

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er receives proper medical attention.

In their letter to British Home Secretary Priti Patel and Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott, the doctors—including physicians practicing in the U.K., Sri Lanka, the U.S., and several other countries—expressed grave concerns over Assange's deteriorating health as a result of his seven-year confinement in the Ecuadorian embassy in London and subsequent incarceration by British authorities as he awaits possible extradition to the United States.

"We have real concerns, on the evidence currently available, that Mr. Assange could die in prison," the doctors wrote.

"The medical situation is thereby urgent."

Assange is currently serving a 50-week sentence in prison for violating his bail conditions in 2012 and is facing charges in the U.S. under the Espionage Act for exposing human rights violations and evidence of war crimes by the U.S. government. He is set to appear in court in February for an extradition hearing.

"Mr. Assange was unable to exercise his right to free and necessary expert medical assessment and treatment throughout the seven-year period," the physicians added.

While he was examined by a number of medical experts during his confinement, Assange was not permitted to go to a hospital even as he reported stiffness and inflammation in his shoulder which first appeared nearly four years ago. He has also exhibited signs of moderate to severe depression and major dental health issues.

Last month, the doctors wrote, former British ambassador Craig Murray published an eyewitness account of Assange's current state describing him as exhibiting "exactly the symptoms of a torture victim." Shortly after, U.N. Special Rapporteur on Torture Nils Melzer accused the U.K. government of "outright contempt for Mr. Assange's rights and integrity."

"It is our opinion that Mr. Assange requires urgent expert medical assessment of both his physical and psychological state of health," wrote the medical experts.

"There is no time to lose."

On social media, supporters of Assange expressed alarm and anger at the government's decision to allow his health to deteriorate so significantly.

"Revealing stuff that should have been in the public domain all along should be treated as a public service, not a crime," Guardian columnist and political activist George Monbiot wrote Monday.

"But Julian Assange is rotting in jail, awaiting extradition, at the behest of a government that wants to preserve its grim secrets."

Tyler Durden

Tue, 11/26/2019 - 03:30


Social Issues


UK tax collectors warn contractors about being ripped-off – and not by HMRC for a change

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Self-assessment phishing and phone scam alert raised

The UK’s tax authorities have issued an official warning to contractors to watch out for self-assessment scams - and they don’t mean IR35 for a change.…


Global Carmageddon Continues: Pirelli And VW Warn About "Worsening Market Scenario"

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Global Carmageddon Continues: Pirelli And VW Warn About "Worsening Market Scenario"

The automotive industry has been mired in recession for the better part of the last 18 months and still shows no signs of stopping. On Tuesday, comments from both VW's CEO and from tire maker Pirelli, who cut its guidance for 2020, continue to exemplify an industry where the very worst of a recession may still be yet to come.

VW's CEO said in an intervie

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w with Bloomberg early this week that he was cautious about "all regions except South America", including major car markets like North America, Europe and China. 

“We know what needs to be done - get our act together on vehicle launches and be very cautious on costs and expenses,” he commented. He also stated that he wasn't surprised that PSA and Fiat Chrysler are in merger talks, given speculation about industry consolidation.

Volkswagen is expected to present a new five-year plan to its board in mid-November.

The shift to electric vehicles, more stringent emissions standards and a slowing global economy all continue to weigh on many auto manufacturers. 

Tire maker Pirelli also warned about its operating profit margin and cash flow on Tuesday, saying it would delay the presentation of a new business plan while it works out scenarios for what it sees as a "worsening market scenario", according to Reuters. 

The company forecasted full year margin on adjusted EBIT of between 17% and 17.5%, much lower than already-lowered expectations of 18% to 19%. The company's adjusted EBIT fell to 685 million euros for the nine months ended September 30, 2019. Pirelli also lowered its full year cash flow expectations to between 330 and 350 million euros, down from expectations of between 350 million and 380 million euros. 

The company said that greater fixed costs and lowered production to reduce inventories both stung its guidance.  

The company is set to present its industrial plans to 2022 in the first quarter of next year. This presentation was previously supposed to occur on December 11 of this year. Pirelli said the setback was due to the market being “more challenging compared with the forecasts of recent months”.

Chief Executive Marco Tronchetti Porvera said: “In this context, to protect our profitability we have to act deeper to reduce the cost of our products.”

Tyler Durden

Thu, 10/31/2019 - 01:00


Business Finance


German Carmakers Warn Of "Seismic, Devastating" No Deal Consequences

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German Carmakers Warn Of "Seismic, Devastating" No Deal Consequences

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The German carmakers have finally broken the Brexit silence. Their No Deal consequences are enormous.

Silence Broken

Conventional wisdom says the UK will suffer more in the the event of No Deal.

I never accepted that bit of

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economic wisdom, noting in particular, Germany would get clobbered.

Silence is now broken.

The Telegraph reports No-deal Brexit nerves grip Wolfsburg, the German home town of Volkswagen

The German carmakers finally broke their silence on Brexit last month. In a rare joint statement with car industry lobby groups from across Europe, they warned that a No Deal Brexit would have “seismic” and “devastating” consequences for the sector.

A German study released earlier this year predicted that No Deal could put as many as 100,000 jobs at risk in Germany - and that Wolfsburg would be among the worst hit cities. Already reeling from the Dieselgate scandal, No Deal is the last thing VW needs.

“We absolutely need a deal with Britain,” Hartwig, Erb, Wolfsburg’s most powerful trade union leader, told the Telegraph.

“There are no winners from a No Deal Brexit. The European economy will be weakened, but “There are no winners from a No Deal Brexit. The European economy will be weakened, but the effects on the British economy will be even worse. Donald Trump is not going to save you.” Donald Trump is not going to save you.”

No Winners

I agree there will be no winners, at least short-term.

Long-term, the UK will be a huge winner.

Brexit Propaganda

But note that myth again: "effects on the British economy will be even worse."

The second half of that statement, "Donald Trump is not going to save you" is certainly true.

But the myths linger. Those myths are in reality nothing but propaganda.

Trade War Battles

For starters, exporters always get hurt more in trade battles, always. If you understand that key point you come to the correct conclusion without looking further.

The same applies to US vs China trade wars. China is hurting more, but China has far more pain tolerance than the US. And of course, loosing less is not winning, no matter what Trump says.

The EU in general, and Germany in particular depend more on exports than the UK. That's about all you need to understand, but pain and remedies go well beyond that.

UK vs EU Remedies

  • The UK can lower corporate and personal taxes, which I believe it would do. Because of budget rules, the EU will mostly be stuck.

  • WTO tariffs will be uniform, but a lower pound will mitigate the UK export damage.

In short, the "UK will get hurt worse" is nothing but purposeful scare tactic propaganda.

Food Scare Tactic

The Guardian comments How a No-Deal Brexit Threatens Your Weekly Food Shop.

UK reliance on EU food imports is a major risk if the country crashes out of the union. Walk into any British supermarket and you will be surrounded by European products, from Italian cheeses to French wines. Around 30% of all food consumed in the UK is imported from the EU, but for some foods, such as spinach and olives, the EU is practically the UK’s sole supplier.

With Boris Johnson claiming he will take Britain out of the EU by 31 October “do or die”, the UK’s reliance on EU food is a major risk. In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the UK would be obliged under World Trade Organization rules to impose average food import tariffs of 22% and conduct product inspections, leading to delays and shortening the shelf-life of products.

OK, 30% of UK food comes from the EU. There are other suppliers for most of that, but not some things like olives.

UK Obligations

The UK is not obliged under WTO rules to impose 22% tariffs on the EU. That is a purposeful Guardian lie. The UK can impose whatever tariff it wants, including zero, as long as it's uniform.

And it can be one level for lamb or things that the UK produces, and another level for olives which it doesn't.

Zero Tariff Plan

On March 13, well before the above scare mongering tactic, the Guardian reported UK Will Cut Most Tariffs to Zero in Event of No-Deal Brexit.

One thing the UK cannot do is apply higher tariffs on the EU than it does other countries, but it is well withing the UK's right to set tariffs at whatever level it wants, not 22%.

It is on this basis that that some UK farmers are afraid of Brexit, but the advantage to the consumer of zero tariffs is obvious.


Regardless of which "who is hurt more" story you believe, No Deal Brexit will be a lose-lose proposition in the short run, with some countries clobbered.

The two countries clobbered the hardest are undoubtedly Ireland and Germany, the former estimated at 4% of GDP.

That's one hell of a hit. It would be up to Ireland to put in border controls because Northern Ireland wouldn't.

It is on this basis I expect a deal, but one never knows in a game of "Chicken".

Brexit Irony

Meanwhile, I note Brexit Irony: EU Rejects Its Own Proposal.

The second irony in this setup is the "No Deal blockers" actually increased the odds of No Deal.

If Ireland comes on board, there will be a deal.

If not, expect a No Deal outcome with another extension until January 31.

Tyler Durden

Mon, 10/07/2019 - 03:30

Dunkin do-nots: Deep-fried cake maker didn't warn its sugar addicts that crooks raided web accounts, says NY AG

logicfish Security dunkin do-nots deep-fried cake maker didnt warn sugar addicts that crooks raided accounts says All http://go.theregister.com   Discuss    Share
President facing impeachment probe, Brexit off the rails... but more importantly, your Dunkies account was potentially pwned

The US state of New York is suing food chain Dunkin Donuts for what is says is an illegal lapse in computer security.…


Taliban Warn More Americans Will Die After Trump Ends Afghan Talks

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Taliban Warn More Americans Will Die After Trump Ends Afghan Talks

President Trump’s decision to abruptly cancel Afghan peace talks will cost more American lives, the Taliban warned on Sunday while the United States promised to keep up military pressure on the militants, in a stunning reversal of efforts to forge a deal ending nearly 20 years of war in Afghanistan.

The Islamist group issued a statement after Trump announced late on Saturday that

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he had unexpectedly canceled secret talks planned for Sunday with the Taliban’s major leaders at the presidential compound in Camp David, Maryland, Reuters reported. He broke off the talks on Saturday after the Taliban claimed responsibility for an attack in Kabul last week that killed an American soldier and 11 others.

Zabihullah Mujahid, a Taliban spokesman, criticized Trump for calling off the dialogue and said U.S. forces have been pounding Afghanistan with attacks at the same time.

"This will lead to more losses to the U.S.," he said. "Its credibility will be affected, its anti-peace stance will be exposed to the world, losses to lives and assets will increase."

It wasn't initially clear who in the world would be "surprised" when the US anti-peace stance is "exposed", but we look forward to upcoming Taliban 8-K's for further information on this topic.

Meanwhile, back in Washington, Secretary of State and the former head of the CIA, Mike Pompeo, said that Afghan peace talks were on hold and Washington would not reduce U.S. military support for Afghan troops until it was convinced the Taliban could follow through on significant commitments. Additionally, Pompeo said on Sunday TV news shows that the US has recalled U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad to chart the path forward. Asked on “Fox News Sunday” whether Afghan talks were dead, Pompeo said, “For the time being they are.”

The development is a major setback for Trump, who has long stated his intention to end U.S. involvement in Afghanistan - since his days as a candidate - and American diplomats have been talking with Taliban representatives for months about a plan to withdraw thousands of U.S. troops in exchange for security guarantees by the Taliban.

And then it all fell apart shortly after US and Taliban negotiators struck a draft peace deal last week, that would have led to a drawdown of troops from America’s longest war. There are currently 14,000 U.S. forces as well as thousands of other NATO troops in the country, 18 years after its invasion by a U.S.-led coalition following the Sept. 11, 2001, Saudi al Qaeda attacks on the United States.

Amid the ongoing peace talks, fighting in Afghanistan had continued and recent assaults by the Taliban cast doubts over the draft deal. As violence escalated, Afghan leaders including President Ashraf Ghani have been increasingly critical of the deal and encouraged the Taliban to enter direct talks.

Asked whether the collapse of talks put a U.S. troop pullout on hold as well, Pompeo said the issue would be discussed. “The president hasn’t yet made a decision on that,” he said on ABC’s “This Week.”

According to Pompeo, Trump decided to get personally involved to get the agreement to the finish line at Camp David after “real progress” had been made in talks: "President Trump ultimately made the decision," Pompeo told Fox. “He said, ‘I want to talk to (President) Ashraf Ghani. I want to talk to these Taliban negotiators. I want to look them in the eye. I want to see if we can get to the final outcome we needed.’"

In the end, the answer was no.

Meanwhile, Trump's secret plans have already unleashed a firestorm of criticism, with the 18th anniversary of Sept 11 just days away.

“Camp David is where America’s leaders met to plan our response after al Qaeda, supported by the Taliban, killed 3000 Americans on 9/11,” Republican Representative Liz Cheney, daughter of Dick Cheney who was U.S. vice president at the time of the attacks, wrote on Twitter on Sunday. “No member of the Taliban should set foot there. Ever.”

Half a world away, US involvement in Afghanistan has been nothing short of a disaster, with Taliban fighters now controling more territory than at any time since 2001 - some have said this is with the blessing of the CIA in exchange for the US maintaining control of the "opium" trade, and launching assaults over the past week that included a suicide attack in Kabul on Thursday that killed U.S. Army Sergeant Elis Barreto Ortiz, 34, from Puerto Rico.

Needless the say, the deep state would not be delighted if the US leave Afghanistan: nine former U.S. ambassadors warned on Tuesday that Afghanistan could collapse in a "total civil war" if Trump withdraws all U.S. forces before the Kabul government and the Taliban conclude a peace settlement.

Not surprisingly, Pompeo downplayed chances of a premature withdrawal.

“President Trump made clear we’re not just going to withdraw because there’s a timeline. We’re only going to reduce our forces when certain conditions are met,” he said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Finally, for all those wondering what US presence if Afghanistan is really all about, here is the answer.


Tyler Durden

Sun, 09/08/2019 - 22:12

EU Bank Bosses Warn Of "Grave Consequences" If ECB Keeps Cutting Rates

zerohedge News bank bosses warn grave consequences keeps cutting rates All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share

The ECB's imposition of negative interest rates have created an "absurd situation" in which banks don't want to hold deposits, rages UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, arguing that this policy is hurting social systems and savings rates.

Ermotti is not alone. As European bank bosses cast their eyes at their share prices, they are fighting back, some have said - biting the hand that feeds, in their attack on ECB policies, warning of severe consequences to asset prices and the broader economy.

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Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg reports, Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing warned that more monetary easing by the ECB, as widely expected next week, will have “grave side effects” for a region that has already lived with negative interest rates for half a decade.

“In the long run, negative rates ruin the financial system,” Sewing said at the event, organized by the Handelsblatt newspaper.

Another cut “may make refinancing cheaper for states, but has grave side effects.”

While incoming ECB head Christine Lagarde has claimed that the benefits of deeply negative rates outweigh the costs (stating just this week that “a highly accommodative policy is warranted for a prolonged period of time;" few economists believe another cut at this level would actually help the economy. According to Sewing, all it would achieve is to further divide society by lifting asset prices while punishing Europe’s savers who are already paying 160 billion euros ($176 billion) a year because of negative interest rates.

“What’s really worrisome: central banks have hardly any tools left to effectively mitigate a real economic crisis,” Sewing said.

“They have already cranked open the money tap - most of all the European Central Bank.”

Who can blame Sewing, as the EU yield curve has collapsed, so has his share price...

Source: Bloomberg

"Banks' interest margins are under pressure in this environment and that’s not going to change,” Commerzbank CEO Martin Zielke said at the same conference.

I don’t think it is a particularly sustainable or responsible policy. But we have to recognize the facts and the facts are that winning clients in this environment helps work against that pressure.

Bloomberg also notes that Yngve Slyngstad, the chief executive officer of Norges Bank Investment Management, Norway’s $1 trillion wealth fund, has separately said that negative rates are the main worry at the world’s largest wealth fund right now.

So, with Draghi facing push back from an increasingly hawkish group of ECB members, the question is, will he just push off the decision? Starting October 31, how the Eurozone will be destroyed - whether with hyperinflation fire and deflationary ice - will no longer be Draghi's decision, but instead the final destruction of the Eurozone will be delegated to arguably the most clueless person (see Argentina) in the room.


UK Cops Warn Mocking Wanted Criminal's Hair On Facebook Could Lead To Arrest

zerohedge News cops warn mocking wanted criminals hair facebook could lead arrest All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Gwent Police in the UK warned Facebook users that mocking a criminal’s hair was “offensive” and could lead to an investigation.

The farce began when Gwent Police posted an image of 21-year-old Jermaine Taylor, who was sentenced to three years in jail for dealing drugs.

Taylor was released early on license but subsequently breached his licence condition and is now a wanted criminal.

After Facebook respondents mocked Taylor’s dist

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inctive balding hairstyle, Gwent Police posted a message warning them that they could be arrested.

“Please remember that harassing, threatening and abusing people on social media can be against the law. Our advice is to be as careful on social media as you would in any other form of communication. If you say something about someone which is grossly offensive or is of an indecent, obscene or menacing character, then you could be investigated by the police,” read the message.

After the post received over 87,000 comments, Gwent Police posted another message admitting some of the remarks “made us laugh.”

“However, when the line is crossed from being funny to abusive, we do have to make sure we are responsible and remind people to be careful about what they write on social media,” they added.

The top rated comment on the post stated, “He was last seen in town; Police are combing the area.”

Meanwhile, Jermaine Taylor remains a wanted man.

*  *  *

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Dodgy vids can hijack PCs via VLC security flaw, US, Germany warn. Software's makers not app-y with that claim

logicfish Security dodgy vids hijack security flaw germany warn softwares makers app-y with that claim All http://go.theregister.com   Discuss    Share
'Fake news!' dev team cries

VLC is said to be once again vulnerable to remote-code execution – meaning a malicious video opened by the software could potentially crash the media player, or joyride it to run malware on the host machine.…


Excluding Huawei from UK's 5G will harm security, MPs warn

logicfish Security excluding huawei from will harm security warn All http://go.theregister.com   Discuss    Share
A decision must be made as a 'matter of urgency', says Intelligence and Security Committee

Excluding Huawei from the UK's 5G network infrastructure would harm resilience and "lower security standards", the Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC) warned today.…

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