205
47 Views

Trump Sparks "Sh*tshow" In Black-Gold As Bullion Demand Soars To 3-Year Highs

zerohedge News trump sparks shtshow black-gold bullion demand soars 3-year highs All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
Trump Sparks "Sh*tshow" In Black-Gold As Bullion Demand Soars To 3-Year Highs

Two things were "unprecedented" today... America's labor market collapse and global oil markets' surge in price.





Just shy of 10 million Americans have signed up for unemployment benefits in the last two weeks... quite an outlier historically...





Source: Bloomberg

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>

For oil traders, it was the worst of times (biggest quarterly loss ever) and the best of times (today's manic jawboning and denials prompted the single-best daily gain for crude ever)...





All thanks to President Trump's apparent lying tweet of an imminent supply-cut deal. Saxo's Ole Hanson summed things up nicely as Trump triggered everyone's stops...




The 24.7% rise is the largest daily gain for WTI ever (and at one point Brent rose a stunning 47% intraday)...BUT let's put that in context...





Source: Bloomberg



US equity markets were volatile intraday,  but thanks to a late-day surge (seemingly triggered by the ventilator DPA) all ended green, led by S&P and Dow...





Futures show the chaos best though as the frightening labor data sparked a market puke into the cash open, which dip-buyer manically bought...





Despite the mixed picture in indices, the Virus-Fear trade is reaccelerating...





Source: Bloomberg



"Most Shorted" Stocks fell for the 5th day in a row...





Source: Bloomberg



Fun-durr-mentals...





Source: Bloomberg



High-yield bond algos triggered in Trump's oil deal comments... but that faded rapidly...





Treasury yields were marginally higher today pushing 30Y back to unchanged on the week...





Source: Bloomberg



10Y yields popped back above 60bps...





Source: Bloomberg



The Dollar drifted higher again today...





Source: Bloomberg



Cryptos spiked today (but fell back after that panic-buying) back into the green for the week...





Source: Bloomberg



Bitcoin spiked above $7200, back to 4-week highs...





Source: Bloomberg



Commodities were all higher on the day (despite dollar gains) with oil the outlier...





Source: Bloomberg



Gold spiked on the terrible jobless data (more helicopter money?)...





Notably, gold futures and spot have started to decouple once again (as physical shortages rear their ugly head again)...





Source: Bloomberg



Finally, Gold coins sold by the U.S. Mint were snapped up in March at the fastest pace in over three years as investors flocked to the haven metal amid the coronavirus pandemic.





Source: Bloomberg



As Bloomberg reports, by the end of the month, investors had purchased142,000 ounces of American Eagle coins, the most since late 2016. With so much retail demand, dealers are charging premiums for bullion -- and even offering to pay more than spot prices to clients willing to part with their gold bars and coins.




Tyler Durden

Thu, 04/02/2020 - 16:00
228
63 Views

West Faces "Social Bomb" As Pandemic Sparks Unrest Among Poorest

zerohedge News west faces social bomb pandemic sparks unrest among poorest All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
West Faces "Social Bomb" As Pandemic Sparks Unrest Among Poorest

The next phase of the COVID-19 pandemic could be a flare-up of social unrest across major Western cities as millions have lost their jobs, economies have crashed into depressions, and the military is being called up to maintain order.



The Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) warned that riots could be imminent in low-income neighborhoods as extreme wealth inequ

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ality has left households unprepared and without a cash buffer to weather the economic downturn.



As we've noted before, many Western households were already stretched thin before the shutdowns began, with little savings, insurmountable debts, and the lack of access to proper healthcare. Now, these folks, which many have been laid off from gig-economy and service sector jobs, have zero income and could be emotionally motivated to hit the streets and protest.



IFRC president Francesco Rocca warned on Friday during a press conference that social unrest could be imminent in Italy, reported Reuters.




"We have a lot of people who are living very marginalized, in the so-called black hole of society... In the most difficult neighborhoods of the biggest cities, I am afraid that in a few weeks, we will have social problems," Rocca said.



"This is a social bomb that can explode at any moment, because they don't have any way to have an income," he said, whose agency deploys volunteers across Europe, including in Italy, Spain, and France.




He warned that the largest Western cities have only a 'few weeks' before social unrest is seen.



As for the US, President Trump has been deploying National Guard units across the country to fight the virus, or a perfect cover to prepare for Martial law-style shutdowns across some areas where the virus is hard-hitting.



President Trump, on Saturday afternoon, said he is considering a quarantine in the New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut area, which would likely be enforced by the military to some degree.



We have noted that National Guard armored vehicles have already been spotted across the country and have suggested that troops are being positioned around major US metros to maintain order if social unrest was seen in low-income neighborhoods.



The Western world is on the brink of turmoil. The dominos are already falling with crashing economies in Europe and the US, triggering massive job losses that could soon lead to the unraveling of social fabric.



Governments offering universal basic income as a solution to keep their citizens content won't work this time. The West is headed for a period of instability, not just economically, but socially.



And now it all makes sense why Americans are rushing to gun stores…










Tyler Durden

Sun, 03/29/2020 - 08:45
242
60 Views

"Overnight, The World Became The Twilight Zone" - Exodus From Cities Sparks Mountain-Dweller Greatest Fear

zerohedge News overnight world became twilight zone exodus from cities sparks mountain-dweller greatest fear All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
"Overnight, The World Became The Twilight Zone" - Exodus From Cities Sparks Mountain-Dweller Greatest Fear

Social distancing is transforming society as we know it. City dwellers are packing up their bags and are heading for the mountains amid the virus crisis.  



"Overnight, the world took a sharp turn into the Twilight Zone," Gina Grande told the Los Angeles Times. "I had to get out of there. So, I made a beeline to my boss' office and said, 'Th

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is is awkward, but can I please telecommute from Southern California?'" 



Grande, terrified of the fast-spreading COVID-19 outbreak in San Francisco, which is where she works and lives, left the metro area for her second home on the outskirts of Joshua Tree National Park, a desert area located in southern California. 





As the pandemic sweeps across California's largest cities, residents are fleeing their urban settings to isolated communities in the Mojave Desert or the rugged Sierra Nevada. The hope is that a remote area can reduce their transmission risk. 



But for some, social distancing measures enforced by the government have not just limited their mobility to and from work and or even their ability to go outside, residents in Los Angeles last week were restricted from leaving the city to vacation homes. 



In Mammoth Lakes, a town in California's Sierra Nevada mountains, banned non-residents because infection risk in the small community would quickly overwhelm their hospital system. 





The flight from cities to rural communities during the outbreak, ignited by fear, could be the next hottest trend for real estate that revives dying suburbs. Families, who've been subjected to chaos at Costco stores of panic hoarding or forced quarantine in their tiny 550 square-foot studios, want the freedom of rural communities and the security of land that could power them through any crisis. 



In Joshua Tree, vacation rental companies have said concerned families from large metro areas are renting short-term rentals for weeks and or months at a time following the virus outbreak. 



"We just confirmed two rentals for long-term stays over three weeks," said Josh Sonntag, who operates several rental units in the area. "In both cases, social distancing and the ability to work remotely was important."





Bryan Wynwood, the owner of Joshua Tree Modern Real Estate, said, "Every call I get is related to the coronavirus. Some of them are from city dwellers worried about being stuck in the center of a metropolis that loses control of its basic public services."



Sam Steinman, 28, owns several short-term rentals in Joshua Tree, said he'd noticed the desperation in city dwellers' voices who are willing to pay double for his properties to escape the outbreak in large cities. 



"I've seen this kind of fear and desperation before in Israel during rocket attacks," Steinman said. "A friend recently asked if I had a gun he could borrow. I said absolutely not."



And maybe, just maybe, COVID-19 will have a long-lasting impact on choices made by city dwellers, who have just realized their entire lives can come crashing down in a public health crisis - though, some are making a mad dash to remote areas where life goes on as usual. 



A noticeable trend is developing: A revival of dying suburbs could be on the horizon as cities are just too dangerous when everything goes to sh*t. 



If you’re looking to flee a metro area, not just because of a virus crisis, but also because housing prices in cities are due for a major correction, here are some affordable suburbs in America that you might find interesting.




Tyler Durden

Wed, 03/25/2020 - 20:10
203
58 Views

Dow Futures Crash Near Limit-Down As Global Dollar Buying Panic Sparks AsiaPac FX Collapse

zerohedge News futures crash near limit-down global dollar buying panic sparks asiapac collapse All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
Dow Futures Crash Near Limit-Down As Global Dollar Buying Panic Sparks AsiaPac FX Collapse

Update (2305ET): Dow futures losses have accelerated, plunging over 1000 points limit-down...





S&P and Nasdaq futures are also crashing...





Additionally, South Korea's KOSPI is halted after triggered circuit-breakers down 8% on the day.



And Copper has s

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uccumbed to the liquidation...





*  *  *



The global scramble for dollars amid a massive shortage has rolled around the AsiaPac time-zone and is leaving a bloody trail across every asset-class.



FX is in freefall with Aussie collapsing at the fastest rate since Lehman...





Source: Bloomberg



Kiwi is back to its weakest since 2009...





Source: Bloomberg



Yen is tumbling once again...





Source: Bloomberg



Won is getting whacked...





Source: Bloomberg



And Aussie has crashed to its weakest against the offshore yuan ever and weakest against onshore yuan since Dec 1993...





Source: Bloomberg



And overall, AsiaPac FX is crashing to its weakest against the USDollar since 2004...





Source: Bloomberg



And the liquidation continues in US equity markets with Dow futures down over 800 points, erasing the after ramp in stocks...





And losses in AsiaPac stocks are accelerating...down 27% from January highs





Source: Bloomberg



And JPY Basis-Swaps are signaling extreme dollar shortage continues...





Source: Bloomberg



This all has the smell of a massive global macro fund liquidation and the contagious impact of that leveraged unwind across the global risk markets.



As Bloomberg's Stephen Spratt details, desks continue to speak of the “sell everything” mentality in markets with huge liquidations and de-leveraging taking place everywhere.



The data stacks up. Looking at the three-day change in open interest across major June bond futures as of close of play Tuesday, the reduction in positions is the equivalent to $150 billion in 10-year cash Treasury bonds ($140m/dv01*). Here’s 3-day open interest change:




  • Schatz: -135,295




  • Bobl: -45,931




  • Bund: -178,221




  • Buxl: -17,566




  • OATs: -41,475




  • BTPs: -41,176




  • Gilts: -28,055




  • US 2y: -158,991




  • US 5y: -44,059




  • US 10y: -129,381




  • US 20y: -60,865




  • US 30y: -26,798




  • JGBs: -36,534



As one veteran Aussie trader exclaimed (who happened to be on the right side of the collapse in the currency):




"I love the smell of global macro fund liquidations in the morning..."




With currencies flash crashing across Asia on Thursday, central bankers may be looking back at the remedies used then.



As Bloomberg's Mike Wilson suggests, the tear the U.S. dollar was on back in 1985 was brought to an end when five central banks gathered in New York’s Plaza Hotel and came up with what became known as The Plaza Accord.





Source: Bloomberg



That sent the dollar into a steep slide that lasted until about the end of 1987.



With the Aussie, kiwi and won just free-falling, it looks like a similar sort of coordinated intervention may be needed to stop the dollar now, especially until the world is deemed free of coronavirus impacts.




Tyler Durden

Wed, 03/18/2020 - 23:14
220
53 Views

Treasury Future Crash Sparks Speculation Of Risk Parity Liquidation

zerohedge News treasury future crash sparks speculation risk parity liquidation All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
Treasury Future Crash Sparks Speculation Of Risk Parity Liquidation

Until today, the selloff was painful, violent, unrelenting... but it was mostly order and made complete sense: stocks were getting liquidated with the bathwater by formerly euphoric investors, with the resulting proceeds shoveled into safe-havens such as Treasurys which helped send the 10Y yield as low as 0.31% on Monday morning as countless Treasury shorts - all those who had listened to JPMorga

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n - got crushed. However, today something changed.



After initially bonds were strongly bid for much of the Asian, European and morning US session, there was a sharp reversal before Europe closed for the day, with 10Y yields blowing out from a low of 0.65% around the time Europe opened, to a high of 0.85% by the European close, then following a modest dip, the selling resumed, sending the 10Y just shy of 0.90%.





Immediately, unfounded theories emerged: a risk parity fund was deleveraging and blowing out of both bonds and stocks; oil exporters were dumping TSYs to obtain cash amid the price plunge in crude, bond vigilantes fuming at the upcoming coronavirus-driven budget deficit explosion, a fund was margin called and liquidated all of its best performing assets. The truth is nobody knows what caused it, but the puke in both stocks and bonds raised quite a few eyebrows, while hammering 60/40 balanced fund returns, generating the biggest weekly total return drop in a combined stock & bond portfolio since Lehman.





What is perhaps just as notable, is that whoever was puking duration did so until the very close with an accelerating liquidation and erratic futures price action observed in the late U.S. afternoon and peaking by 4pm, when the ultra-long bond futures plunged nearly 6 points in less than an hour - an unprecedented move - and the Ultra contract closed well in the red even as stocks crashed into a bear market.





Was today's bizarre balanced portfolio unwind a one-time event, or have forced liquidations finally made it to risk parity funds? We'll know tomorrow, if not overnight, but if for whatever reason US Treasurys are no longer a safe haven if one or more forced sellers are set to drag prices lower, then watch as the real safe haven - gold - jumps above its all time high on very short notice.




Tyler Durden

Wed, 03/11/2020 - 16:58
202
25 Views

'Joementum' Sparks Stock Buying-Panic, Rate-Cut Hopes Soar

zerohedge News joementum sparks stock buying-panic rate-cut hopes soar All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
'Joementum' Sparks Stock Buying-Panic, Rate-Cut Hopes Soar

Some success, after weeks of doldrums, for Joe Biden's campaign sparked a massive surge in prediction markets' view of his likelihood of getting the Democratic nomination surged to record highs (as Bernie and Bloomberg crashed)...





Source: Bloomberg



And it is this phoenix-like rise that is being proposed as driving today's surge in stocks...

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p>



Source: Bloomberg



And intraday, as various results came in with Biden winning, the market legged ever higher...





Source: Bloomberg



Do traders really believe this guy can win?




Prediction markets disagree, and Trump's odds of victory actually improved overnight





Source: Bloomberg



So maybe, just maybe, Biden's gains mean Trump more likely to win... and that's what sent stocks higher?



But, there is another factor - the market is now demanding almost 2 more rate-cuts in March...







Source: Bloomberg



And an increasing number of traders are betting on The Fed going ZIRP/NIRP soon!





Source: Bloomberg



So maybe - as usual - it's just the market demanding more liquidity, knowing The Fed will never let it down?



US markets erased yesterday's losses and gamma lifted them after that...





S&P Futures moved above a key level of support (as Nomura's Charlie McElligott warned, a close above 3079 today would see the signal go from current "+16%" (long) back to "+100%" signal, leading to further aggressive buying and more shorts squeezed), and that sparked the gamma flip melting futures up towards yesterday's rate-cut highs...





Dow Desperately wanted 27k...





Another 1000-plus-point range day in the Dow has sent realized vol to its highest since mid-2011 - the heart of the European Financial Crisis...





Source: Bloomberg



Stocks desperately didn't want to be outdone by gold post-Powell...





Value was monkey-hammered as the equity momentum factor had its best 3-day surge since June 2016 (Brexit vote)...





Source: Bloomberg



Biden's victory over Bernie did spark a very real resurgence in healthcare stocks however...the biggest daily jump since Nov 2008...





Source: Bloomberg



FANG Stocks managed gains today but only marginal...





Source: Bloomberg



And bank stocks managed gains - after 10 days of carnage...





Source: Bloomberg



VIX tumbled 5 vols today after spiking down yesterday on the rate-cut and then surging higher...





Bonds and stocks continue to decouple... again...





Source: Bloomberg



Treasury yields were very mixed today with the short-end tumbling as the long-end chopper around, ending flat...





Source: Bloomberg



The 2Y Yield plunged again...





Source: Bloomberg



The yield curve steepened significantly - to its steepest since June 2018...





Source: Bloomberg



But, don't get all excited - Indeed, the last time the curve rose so fast from such a low base was in 1990, 2001, and 2008, months before the U.S. economy entered recession each time...





Source: Bloomberg



And before we leave bond-land, we note that the spread between 'cheap' China bonds and 'expensive' US bonds is at its highest in 5 years...





Source: Bloomberg



And on the other side, US yields have collapsed relative to German yields...





Source: Bloomberg



The Dollar rallied today, desperately trying to erase the rate-cut crash from yesterday...





Source: Bloomberg



Cryptos legged lower today...





Source: Bloomberg



Commodities were generally unchanged today, but PMs held their post-rate-cut gains...





Source: Bloomberg



Oil surged overnight on OPEC+ hopes, and inventory data, but Russia's lack of cooperation appeared to spook investors...





Gold future hovered around $1640, holding on to the post-Powell spike...





Gold's historical vol has exploded to 4 year highs...





Source: Bloomberg



And gold continues to track the global volume of negative yielding debt extremely closely...





Source: Bloomberg



Finally, this could be a problem for the bears... Bloomberg notes that as of March 2, short sellers had increased outstanding contracts to the highest level since June 2014, according to IHS Markit data.





Source: Bloomberg



Which might fit with the bounce we saw in 2000, after The Fed's Y2K liquidity program ended...





Source: Bloomberg




Tyler Durden

Wed, 03/04/2020 - 16:01
211
47 Views

Not-So-Super Tuesday: Fed's Shock-And-Awe Fails, Sparks Market Turmoil

zerohedge News not-so-super tuesday feds shock-and-awe fails sparks market turmoil All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
Not-So-Super Tuesday: Fed's Shock-And-Awe Fails, Sparks Market Turmoil

People were already panicking... (empty water shelves at Costco)





And now the market and The Fed are too...



After Friday's greatest Dow point loss ever was followed by yesterday's greatest Dow point gain ever, the question is - after The Fed unleashed $100 billion of repo liquidity and 50bps of rate

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cuts today, but leaving stocks lower - will it work (whatever work means)?





Scott Minerd doesn’t think so.




“While I believe this rate cut is a necessary act, I doubt it is sufficient to bail out the market. Now is the moment of truth...



...We will now see how impotent monetary policy is at addressing this crisis.”




Last week, amid the collapse in markets, Minerd, who is Guggenheim’s CIO, said the outbreak is “possibly the worst thing” he’s seen in his career because of its potential global spread and the Fed’s limited tools to staunch potential economic fallouts.




“This has the potential to reel into something extremely serious,” Minerd told Bloomberg TV last week.



“It’s very hard to imagine a scenario where you can actually contain this thing.”




And no matter what The Fed delivers, it will never be enough as Minerd sees the 10Y Treasury yield hitting 25bps by the time this is over... and another 15% or so lower in stocks.



This is the largest rate-cut since the fall of 2008, and just the ninth emergency rate cut in history...





So, The Fed cut 50bps... but the market quickly priced in demands almost two more rate-cuts in March!!





Source: Bloomberg



But lost in much of the hype around the rate-cut was the fact that term and overnight repo liquidity exploded to its highest since the crisis began last September...





Source: Bloomberg



Bets on interest-rates going to zero, or negative, have exploded...





Source: Bloomberg



Believe it: MESTER: FED'S FRAMEWORK REVIEW INCLUDES STUDYING NEGATIVE RATES



And as rates plunged and that headline hit, bank stocks cratered...





Source: Bloomberg



Airline stocks also tumbled back to their lowest close since Oct 2016...





Source: Bloomberg



US markets were briefly exuberant after The Fed cut rates, then the questions began...





US markets also fell back into correction (sub-10%) territory today...





Futures show the real action on the day as buyers panicked into stock on the rate-cut but were devastatingly rejected...





Nasdaq closed below its 100DMA and S&P closed below its 200DMA...





No one should be surprised by this drop... earnings had plunged before it...





Source: Bloomberg



VIX trading was insane today, flash-crashing below 25 when The Fed cut rates, only to explode back higher, topping 40 intraday, before fading back in the last hour...





Source: Bloomberg



Stocks continue to catch down to bonds' reality...





Source: Bloomberg



Treasury yields plunged today after The Fed rate-cut...





Source: Bloomberg



With yields at or near new record lows across the curve...





Source: Bloomberg



10Y plunged below the Maginot Line of 1.00% yield...





Source: Bloomberg



The yield curve steepened (as the short-end was utterly destroyed)





Source: Bloomberg



30Y TIPS yields crashed into negative territory for the first time ever...





Source: Bloomberg



The Dollar puked lower on the rate-cut, holding at 4-week lows...





Source: Bloomberg



JPY weakened notably against gold today, erasing the forced selling from last week...





Source: Bloomberg



Cryptos rolled over today amid the market slump, with Bitcoin back below $9000...





Source: Bloomberg



Commodities initially all spiked on the rate-cut, then oil and copper plunged as PMs held gains...





Source: Bloomberg



Gold soared higher today after The Fed cut rates, erasing last week's puke with futures tagging $1650 intraday...





WTI traded up to $48.50 intraday, but ended back below $47.50...





So, finally, we ask, did The Fed just swing from omnipotence to impotence?




It seems an emergency rate-cut of 50bps has done more to damage confidence that rebuild it... "what do they know?"



Did The Fed get an early glimpse of this week's payrolls data?



We wonder what Powell and Trump are thinking?





As Rabo noted earlier, in order to decide what to do after The Fed cut, answer this first, key question:




what level of interest rates is required to incentivize you to risk the death of yourself and your family?



I am sure that there are policy wonks out there who believe they can correctly capture that precise equilibrium level on monetary policy. The point is that lower rates don’t help in this situation at all. If demand is destroyed by people bunkering down at home for weeks, and supply chains being disrupted, all lower borrowing costs can do is help tide businesses over if banks agree to extend loans and credit cards, etc. (as China is already now doing) – and all that does paint us further into the corner we are already in, because those rates won’t be able to rise again.



Of course, if we don’t see any major fiscal stimulus then it’s hard to imagine how one can remain too optimistic either.




It seems the current Fed is ignoring the risks that former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher warned last week...




"Does The Fed really want to have a put every time the market gets nervous? ...Coming off all-time highs, does it make sense for The Fed to bail the markets out every single time... creating a trap?"



"The Fed has created this dependency and there's an entire generation of money-managers who weren't around in '74, '87, the end of the '90s, anbd even 2007-2009.. and have only seen a one-way street... of course they're nervous."



"The question is - do you want to feed that hunger? Keep applying that opioid of cheap and abundant money?"




And they will never learn, as we noted above, the market is now demanding more rate-cuts...





Because, as Fisher concluded ominously: "the market is dependent on Fed largesse... and we made it that way... but we have to consider, through a statement rather than an action, that we must wean the market off its dependency on a Fed put."



And then there's this... Biden and Bernie all tied up in the prediction markets ahead of tonight's Primary...






Tyler Durden

Tue, 03/03/2020 - 16:00
220
71 Views

Corona-Crash Sparks Fastest 'Correction' In History On Record-Breaking Volume

zerohedge News corona-crash sparks fastest correction history record-breaking volume All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
Corona-Crash Sparks Fastest 'Correction' In History On Record-Breaking Volume

It was a historic week...





S&P crashed from peak to correction at the fastest pace in history...





Dow crashed from peak to correction at its fastest pace since 1928 - right before The Great Depression





Source: Bloomberg

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p>

Right on time...we're gonna need more liquidity...





Source: Bloomberg



Some more historical context...





The last 7 days has been carnage...





As SunTrust’s chief market strategist  Keith Lerner wrote:




"Investors are selling stocks first and asking questions later."



“We are seeing signs of pure liquidation. ‘Get me out at any cost’ seems to be the prevailing mood. There is little doubt the coronavirus will continue to weigh on the global economy, and the U.S. will not be immune. There is much we do not know. However, it is also premature to suggest the base case for the U.S. economy is recession.”




But, James McCormick, global head of desk strategy at NatWest Markets noted:




Asset prices diverged significantly from growth in the past year, in part because of central bank policy, but also because passive investment’s main signal is price action.



The COVID-19 escalation runs a real risk of virtuous cycle turning to a vicious one. Either way, given where growth estimates are heading for the next few months, I’d expect more downside.”




Some of the week/month/year's high- and low-lights...




  • S&P is down 7 days in a row - longest losing streak since Nov 2016 (worst month since Feb 2009 - equal to Dec 2018's drop, worst week since Lehman - Oct 2008)




  • Dow is down 7 days in a row - longest losing streak since June 2018 (worst month since Feb 2009, worst week since Lehman - Oct 2008)




  • Dow volume today hit an all-time record high.




  • MAGA stocks lost $780 Billion in market cap in the last 7 days.




  • World stocks lost $5 trillion in market cap in the last 7 days




  • VIX exploded 30 points higher in Feb - its biggest monthly spike in vols ever




  • Bank stocks suffered their biggest weekly drop since March 2009 (worst month since Feb 2009)




  • Airline stocks suffered their biggest weekly drop since March 2009 (worst month since Nov 2008)




  • 2Y yields fell 39bps in Feb - the biggest yield drop since Nov 2008




  • 30Y yields fell 33bps in Feb - the biggest yield drop since Aug 2019




  • Treasury Vol highest since Sept 2013




  • HY Credit Spreads widened by the most since the financial crisis in Feb




  • The USDollar rose by the most since July 2019 in Feb (but the worst week since 2019)




  • Silver suffered its worst monthly drop since May 2016




  • Gold's worst day today since June 2013




  • Oil collapsed again in February for its worst start to a year since 1991



At its low today, the Dow wiped out almost all of last year's 22% gain...





Source: Bloomberg



Stocks rebounded a little today on hopes of an emergency cut this weekend... but that failed... and then sheer panic-buying (PPT?) which pushed Nasdaq just into the green!!!





Just look at the closing ramp - End of month flows? Algos gone wild...





Even when Jay Powell issued a statement which definitely didn't suggest that a Sunday night rescue was planned (despite Kevin Warsh's urging)...




0830ET Kaplan: "I'll be prepared to make a judgement as we go into the March meeting, I am trying to keep my attention on what's going on in the underlying economy."



0905ET Bullard: "Further policy rate cuts are a possibility if a global pandemic actually develops with health effects approaching the scale of ordinary influenza, but this is not the baseline case at this time... Longer-term U.S. interest rates have been driven lower by a global flight to safety, likely benefiting the U.S. economy." Bullard added that "even with the current stock market price drop, equities have been on a long upswing."



1030ET Bullard spoke again reaffirming that US GDP Forecasts "don't look very severe" and The Fed is "willing to react if virus has major impact but will want to wait and monitor events until the next meeting."



1430ET Powell: "The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook. We will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy."




Powell's pumping plan failed...





CNBC's Steve Liesman also summed things up well:




"At what level of interest rates would I be willing to go to a rock concert and risk infection?"




Nevertheless, the market is now demanding 36bps of cuts in March (so one cut guaranteed and a 50% or so chance of 50bps), additionally market is pricing in 65bps of cuts by June.





Source: Bloomberg



China, finally, was ugly overnight, starting to catch down to EU and US stocks since Covid-19 struck...





Source: Bloomberg



Despite today's desperate attempt to rebound - perhaps on hopes of an emergency rate-cut by The Fed this weekend and Powell's statement - the S&P and Dow are down 7 days in a row...with 4 intraday 1,000 point drops in a row





Source: Bloomberg



The S&P 500 just suffered its fastest crash from peak to correction ever... and US stocks saw their worst week since Lehman (Oct 2008), leaving everything red year-to-date...





Stock market volume has exploded higher as the crash has accelerated - notably higher volumes than during the Dec 2018 crash...





The Dow saw its biggest volume since April 2006...





Source: Bloomberg



FANG stocks were FUBAR...





Source: Bloomberg



MAGA stocks have lost $780 billion in the last week...





Source: Bloomberg



World Stocks lost over $5.1 trillion in market cap in the last 6 days - that is the biggest loss ever...





Source: Bloomberg



Airline stocks collapsed over 21% this week - their worst since March 2009...





Source: Bloomberg



Bank stocks were a bloodbath this week...





Source: Bloomberg



The biggest 6-day collapse in bank stocks since the peak of the financial crisis...





Source: Bloomberg



VIX surged over 30 points in Feb...





Source: Bloomberg



VIX closed at its highest since Aug 2011...





Source: Bloomberg



Liquidity has collapsed in the VIX complex as bid-offer spreads have exploded...





Credit markets imploded in the last week, with HY Bond OAS blowing out in Feb by the most





Source: Bloomberg



Treasury yields plunged in February, with the long-end crashing 33bps - the biggest drop since Aug 2019...





Source: Bloomberg



But while all yields were lower, the 2Y saw the biggest drop - down 39bps - the biggest monthly decline since Nov 2008





Source: Bloomberg



While equity vol is exploding, Bond vol is also spiking dramatically, to its highest since Sept 2013





Source: Bloomberg



10Y Real Treasury Rates crashed down to -75bps...





Source: Bloomberg



The yield curve (3m10Y) flattened for the second month in a row, closing inverted...





Source: Bloomberg



The entire Treasury curve is now trading below the Fed Funds rate...





Source: Bloomberg



The dollar fell 0.25% on the week, thanks to a last-minute statement from The Fed's Jay Powell. This was the worst week for the dollar since 2019...





Source: Bloomberg



Cryptos had an ugly week (BTC -11%, ETH -15%) erasing the month's gains leaving only Ethereum positive in Feb...





Source: Bloomberg



Thanks to today's carnage in gold, the yellow metal actually ended the month in the red





Source: Bloomberg



The week was also a bloodbath for all commodities... led by oil...





Source: Bloomberg



Silver was clubbed like a baby seal this week to the lowest since Aug 2019...





Gold was also monkey-hammered today on massive volume... its worst day since June 2013





Oil extended its losses from January for the worst start to a year since 1991...





Lots of questions about the crash in gold today - we point to one key chart for the culprit - BoJ!!





Source: Bloomberg



Finally, as @QTRResearch noted:




MON - People on CNBC said buying - WRONG
TUE - People on CNBC said buying - WRONG
WED - People on CNBC said buying - WRONG
THU - People on CNBC said buying - WRONG
FRI - People on CNBC said buying - WRONG




And as Jim Bianco noted, CNBC hit the panic button this week...





Or did the market panic over Bernie?





Source: Bloomberg



From "Extreme Greed" to "Extreme Fear" in 2 months...





Source: CNN



Still, we know who will be buying this dip... or telling you to...





White House Economic Adivser Larry Kudlow suggested investors “buy the dip.”




Tyler Durden

Fri, 02/28/2020 - 16:01
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European Close Sparks Buying-Panic Bid After Morning Momo Massacre

zerohedge News european close sparks buying-panic after morning momo massacre All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
European Close Sparks Buying-Panic Bid After Morning Momo Massacre

The head of the WHO says "this is no time for complacency." Goldman warns "stocks are underestimating the effect of the virus." Morgan Stanley warns of a "factor crash." JPMorgan  warned "this bubble will collapse." Headlines suggesting a major increase in virus cases in Beijing. And an increasing number

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of firms are cutting outlooks and pointing to uncertainty about resumption of supply chains from China.



To quote John Wick "Oh, yeah, I think China's back..." NOT!





Source: Bloomberg



So, it's only right that we would sell off...





BRIEFLY... before dip-buyers rampaged back into the market after Europe closed to soothe the fraying nerves...





The big move in markets occurred around 11-1130ET (into the European close).



The hyper-stocks - PLUG, TSLA, SPCE for example - all collapsed only to be ramped back to vwap...





Momentum was monkey-hammered...





Source: Bloomberg



The 'low-vol'-related factors crashed...





Source: Bloomberg



FAANG stocks all plunged symmetrically...





Source: Bloomberg



Some argued that the trigger for stocks was the 30Y Yield breaking to new 2020 lows intraday...





Source: Bloomberg



Overall, the plunge sent all major US indices into the red for the week (except Trannies) but once Europe had closed, the bid was back... Small Caps and Nasdaqa pushed back into the green on the week...





Intraday, the collapse saw the most negative TICK since August





Source: Bloomberg



Cyclicals suffered the most damage in the mid-morning dump...





Source: Bloomberg



Treasury yields all tumbled intraday with the long-end outperforming (30-5bps, 2Y -3bps)...





Source: Bloomberg



Yields are approaching record lows once again with the 30Y within 1bps of a record low close...





Source: Bloomberg



...while stocks are at record highs?





Source: Bloomberg



The yield curve tumbled to its most inverted since Oct 19th...





Source: Bloomberg



The market has started to demand more rate-cuts in 2020... to save us all...





Source: Bloomberg



The Dollar Index (DXY) for the 12th day in the last 14 to its highest since May 2017 (and the critical 100.00 level)...





Source: Bloomberg



JPY continued its collapse...the biggest 2-day crash in the yen since Sept 2017





Source: Bloomberg



Pushing JPY to near record lows against gold...





Source: Bloomberg



And the Euro is at its weakest ever against gold...





Source: Bloomberg



And Turkey's Lira crashed back near record lows against the dollar and pushed every weaker against gold...





Source: Bloomberg



Cryptos were all down on the day after an early morning pukefest across the entire space...





Source: Bloomberg



Bitcoin puked back below $10,000... again...





Source: Bloomberg



Gold and oil were higher today with small drops for copper and silver...





Source: Bloomberg



Spot Gold topped $1620 - its highest since March 2013...





Source: Bloomberg



WTI Crude rallied back above $54 intraday - one-month highs...





Source: Bloomberg



And finally... Spot The Odd One Out!





Source: Bloomberg



Something bad better happen soon to prompt global liquidity to re-accelerate or stocks are going to be very disappointed...





Source: Bloomberg




Tyler Durden

Thu, 02/20/2020 - 16:00
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China's Crackdown On Pajama-Wearers Sparks Surveillance-State Backlash

zerohedge News chinas crackdown pajama-wearers sparks surveillance-state backlash All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
China's Crackdown On Pajama-Wearers Sparks Surveillance-State Backlash

Avid Zero Hedge readers are probably aware that the Communist Party leadership has managed to construct a surveillance apparatus in the country's largest cities that tracks its citizens with panoptic precision. Spit your gum out on the sidewalk in Beijing, and your 'social credit score' - a government 'rating' that quantifies your obedience to laws and social customs - might take a hit.

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/>

While this system is also used for more nefarious purposes - minority Muslims in the far Western state of Xinjiang have been placed under constant surveillance as President Xi and the Party work to undermine adherence to Islam and mold the ethnic Uyghurs into obedient Communists - Beijing also uses it for more mundane purposes, like catching thieves who steal toilet paper from public restrooms.





But recently, the government triggered a rare backlash against the Chinese security state - a terrifying glimpse of how governments might leverage digital control to keep their people docile - when officials in a city in Eastern China launched a campaign to end "uncivilized behavior."



As the New York Times tells it, this campaign was basically Rudy Giuliani's 'broken windows' strategy on steroids.. And on Monday, the urban management department of Suzhou, the Chinese city of six million in Anhui Province, started the controversy by publishing photos taken by street cameras of seven young residents wearing pajamas in public.



Along with the photos, police published the names of the offenders, government ID numbers and locations where the "uncivilized behavior" took place. But residents responded that the young residents were simply being kids, and many criticized the police for their overzealousness.



According to the NYT, the backlash was a rare moment of resistance from a population that has seemingly accepted their totalitarian rulers.



Earlier, a government post on WeChat laid out the reasoning for shaming the pajama-wearers.




"Uncivilized behavior refers to when people behave and act in ways that violate public order because they lack public morals," read a post on WeChat, a common social messaging app, which has since been deleted.



"Many people think that this is a small problem and not a big deal," the post said. "Others believe public places are truly 'public,' where there is no blame, no supervision and no public pressure."



"This has brought about a kind of complacent, undisciplined mind set," it concluded.




While the use of facial recognition technology in security cameras remains taboo around the world, in China, it's widely accepted. Powerful software allows the state security panopticon to quickly match offenders with their identities.



Some users of Chinese social media warned that the technology should be used cautiously.




"Facial recognition technology should be used with caution," a user named Xiu Li De Xiao Wo wrote on Sina Weibo, a popular microblogging platform. "They should really be restricting access."




The Suzhou ban on pajamas in public isn't the first time Chinese authorities tried to crack down on unacceptable dress codes. Police have also cracked down on the "Beijing bikini," a look where men roll up their shirts and bare their belly during the hot summer months. 



While the debate over facial recognition tech can be light-hearted at times, reports about advances in video-tracking technology have raised fears about the government or private companies engaging in this level of extreme monitoring in the US. Last weekend, the New York Times published a blockbuster story about ClearView, a company that had invented a facial-recognition technology on par with anything used in China.



Then again, with such advanced surveillance tech at their disposal, we're certain the Chinese authorities would have no problem identifying the source of the coronavirus outbreak, not to mention tracking all of those who might have been exposed. Though if this were true, how come so many infected victims were allowed to leave the country?




Tyler Durden

Fri, 01/31/2020 - 22:05
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Virus Shock Crashes Baltic Dry, Sparks China Hard-Landing Fears

zerohedge News virus shock crashes baltic sparks china hard-landing fears All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
Virus Shock Crashes Baltic Dry, Sparks China Hard-Landing Fears

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index plunged on Friday, with rates for capsize vessels hitting a record low as an economic shock could be developing in China as two-thirds of its economy has been shut down because of the coronavirus outbreak.



The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels, ferry dry bulk commodities across the world slipp

Read More
ed 11 points, or about 2.2%, to 487, the lowest level since April 2016, reported Reuters.




The Baltic index has plunged 10.5% this week as coronavirus cases in China soared, and factories and cities in some of the largest industrial hubs in the world ground to a halt. This in itself is producing an economic shock, first seen in industrial metals and energy prices plummeting in the last several weeks. 



The capesize index has fallen by more than 99% this week, the sharpest drop on record as demand for large-sized bulk carriers and tankers typically above 150,000 deadweight tonnage, comes to an abrupt stop. 



The panamax index declined 3.5% on Friday, down 14% on the week. 



The supramax index lost 4 points to 524 on Friday. 



We've noted that the "frontloading" effect ahead of tariff deadlines ended in late 3Q19 when the first signs of a trade resolution emerged between the U.S. and China. 



In the last four months, the Baltic index has crashed the most since 2008 and has confirmed our slowbalisation thoughts. 





And now, the situation is much worse, and the reason is that the global economy was already weakening and susceptible to a shock. 



The Federal Reserve's tightening cycle, coupled with President Trump's trade war blowing up complex supply chains around China and the world, did immense damage to the global economy and world trade. It opened up something cycle folks call a "period of vulnerability," and it's in this timeframe that the global economy could be tilted into recession if an exogenous shock is seen. That shock, as per the former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman Stephen Roach said this week, happens to be coronavirus outbreak shutting down China's economy, and the shock may vibrate across the world in the weeks or months ahead. 




"With the world economy operating dangerously close to stall speed, the confluence of ever-present shocks and a sharply diminished trade cushion raises serious questions about financial markets' increasingly optimistic view of global economic prospects," Roach said via his op-ed in Project Syndicate.




The coronavirus shock from China has already sent commodities tumbling; for instance, copper futures are on the longest losing streak since 1986. Dr. Copper suggests China's economy is headed for a hard landing, along with continued deceleration across the world. 





"The global economy continues to show declining rates of economic growth, originating from a US-based tightening cycle and a private sector deleveraging in China. The slowdown was exacerbated by a US-China trade spat, denting business confidence. 



The global PMI heatmap shows over the last 18 months, the industrial economy has been weakening with the average and median reading below the 50 expansion-contraction line. The Baltic Dry Index has declined a staggering 80% since September 2019.





Historically, recessions occur when an organic economic slowdown clashes with a negative economic shock. Should the employment market weaken further, and job losses continue to spread throughout cyclical sectors of the global economy, a recessionary shock becomes an increasingly large concern," noted Eric Basmajian, Founder of EPB Macro Research. 



The collapse in the Baltic index, happened well in advance of the coronavirus outbreak, suggests that the virus shock will start reversing global economic data and lead to another episode of falling bond yields and soaring negative-yielding debt. 





And the chatter on Twitter in the last several months as the stock market roared higher, was that the Baltic index had lost its predictive powers of suggesting economic doom. Though, the reason for it was due to the "frontloading of tariffs," and with that widely over, now comes the payback period with a coronavirus shock that could tilt the world into recession. 



 




Tyler Durden

Fri, 01/31/2020 - 18:05


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Business Finance

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Housing Affordability Crisis Sparks "Rise Of The Pod People" Across America

zerohedge News housing affordability crisis sparks rise people across america All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
Housing Affordability Crisis Sparks "Rise Of The Pod People" Across America

The U.S. is facing an affordable housing crisis as the Federal Reserve continues to inflate home prices with easy money that is far outpacing wages. 



Homes in 74% of the country, mostly the large metro areas, are unaffordable for the average worker. At least three-quarters of millennials will never own home as they're drowning in student debt, auto loans, and credit car

Read More
d debt. 



Renting has also become too costly for many in large metro areas like San Francisco. Millennials have already moved into campers and tent cities to escape rising rents, but there could be a new solution called "pod living." 



For about $1,000 to $1,375, a millennial could rent a 50 sq. Ft. pod per month in downtown San Francisco's Mission District, reported SFGate. 





As of right now, developer Chris Elsey of Elsey Partners in Manhattan, Kansas, is planning to build two apartment buildings in the Mission District that will house tiny apartments and 88 pods. 



"The contentious part is these below-grade sleeping pods," said Elsey. "When you're building something, the plans have to be approved by the Planning Department and the Building Department. These below-grade sleeping pods meet the building codes, but there's this perception from the Planning Department that it's not something any human being should be exposed to or allowed to do."





SFGate reached out to San Francisco's Department of Building about the project, who responded by saying: "At this point, we have not received any permit applications for the project. Until a developer applies for a building permit and submits building plans for DBI review, we are not in a position to say whether the proposed project will comply with San Francisco's Building Code."



Elsey's plan is to transform 401 S. Van Ness and 1500 15th St. into an eight-floor building with 161 200 sq. Ft. units. Then in the basement area, 88 pods will be housed, stacked up like a college dormitory. 





Elsey said pod life would have strict rules, including no pod sex and or pod parties. 



He said the purpose of the pods are too give millennials a chance to live in a hip part of town for an affordable price, even if that means a 50 sq. Ft. space for about $1,000 per month. 



"We're trying to build the most affordable market-rate living arrangement," said Elsey. "That's been our main objective."



He added: "We're trying to utilize this below-grade space that has traditionally been used for accessory uses such as bike parking. What's more important, beds or bikes? I guess it's up to everybody's opinion, but my opinion is there's an incredible housing shortage in San Francisco."



Elsey is not the first to develop pods for broke millennials – we noted last summer that PodShare had bunk beds for rent in San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. 




On the East Coast, we noted that  "capsule living" has become a popular trend among millennials as 350 sq. Ft. studios in NYC cost upwards of $645,000. 



The fascination of tiny homes among millennials is the result of failed policies via the Fed and the government, who've allowed home prices to hyperinflate out of the reach of millennials. 



We've even documented millennials buying shipping container homes on Amazon that cost around $37,000. 





The pod life trend is increasing on both coasts - the American Dream is quickly reversing – a sign that wealth inequality in the "greatest economy ever" continues to soar. 



The new American dream explained: 





 




Tyler Durden

Tue, 01/21/2020 - 23:45
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Leaked EU Letter Sparks Row Over Turkey Aid Cuts Linked To Gas Drilling Off Cyprus

zerohedge News leaked letter sparks over turkey cuts linked drilling cyprus All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
Leaked EU Letter Sparks Row Over Turkey Aid Cuts Linked To Gas Drilling Off Cyprus

The European Union is eyeing long promised punitive measures against Turkey for its illegal military incursion into northern Syria, as well as its unauthorized natural gas drilling off Cyprus' coast. 



Germany's Deutsche Welle reported on Saturday the EU has moved to cut pre-accession aid to Turkey by 75%, citing a letter sent to the Europ

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ean Parliament by the EU foreign affairs commissioner. The Instrument for 'Pre-Accession Assistance' (IPA) is offered in support of reforms in countries in the process of joining the EU, despite previously planned 'fast-tracked' talks for Turkey to join the European bloc stalling significantly after 2016. However, the EU quickly distanced itself the report, which appears to have originated with a leaked draft EU letter




An EU spokesman on Sunday denied media reports from the previous day that claimed the bloc had agreed to massive new cuts to pre-accession aid to Turkey.



Germany's Funke Media Group had said it saw a letter from the bloc's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, announcing a 75% cut to the funds Ankara receives as a prospective EU member via the "Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA)." — DW






It appears the letter was leaked to or seen by the media prematurely, and now EU officials are scrambling to deny it.



Europe has also of late been concerned over President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's growing authoritarianism and control over various branches and institutions of Turkey's government, especially since putting down the 2016 Turkish coup d'état attempt which resulted in him and his supporters emerging stronger than ever. 



"Turkey will now only receive €168 million ($186 million), of which €150 million will be spent on strengthening democracy and rule of law," the original disputed Deutsche Welle report said of potential measures, threatening an aid package which is supposed to be over twice the size. 



EU foreign affairs commissioner Borrell's apparently leaked letter indicated the potential slash in funds are directly related to Turkey's Syria operations against the Kurds and incursions into Cyprus' Exclusive Economic Zone. This follows the European Commission announcing sanctions in November to target "individuals or entities responsible for, or involved in, unauthorized drilling activities of hydrocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean."



Over the past year, Turkish authorities have been brazen in publicizing their territorial claims and actions backing them in the eastern Mediterranean, even as EU leaders have slammed the now nine months-long exploration and drilling expansion in solidarity with Cypriot condemnations. Starting last summer two exploration and drilling ships — the Yavuz and the Fatih  had been deployed a mere 42 miles off the west coast of Cyprus, accompanied also by military vessels and on occasion aircraft.  



But as DW reports further, this latest proposed looming and now disputed cut in pre-accession aid will not effect the billions promised to Turkey in the wake of the 2015 to 2016 peak of the refugee crisis:




The cut in aid, however, doesn't affect the €3.5 billion offered to Turkey as part of a larger EU deal to prevent refugees from reaching European shores.



The EU has already warned Turkey of possible repercussions over illegal gas drilling off the coast of Cyprus.




However, the EU has signaled it could be a first step in more punitive measures to come. 





Turkey has long claimed it's drilling within its territorial rights, based on its lone claim to the so-called Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (since 1974), which supposedly allows Ankara to share revenues from Cypriot gas exploration. 



Ultimately, Turkey has laid claim to a waters extending a whopping 200 miles from its coast, brazenly asserting ownership over a swathe of the Mediterranean that even cuts into Greece's exclusive economic zone.




Tyler Durden

Tue, 01/21/2020 - 02:45


Tags

Politics

250
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Stocks Soar After MidEast De-Escalation Sparks Crude Carnage, Bond Bloodbath

zerohedge News stocks soar after mideast de-escalation sparks crude carnage bond bloodbath All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
Stocks Soar After MidEast De-Escalation Sparks Crude Carnage, Bond Bloodbath

Update: We note in the last few minutes of the day there were reports of rocket strikes in the Green Zone in Baghdad and that sparked some notable derisking into the close.





As Sven Henrich tweeted: "Do the guys that launch rockets consult technical charts?"





Does mak

Read More
e you wonder?



*  *  *



From WW3 to Record Highs in 12 hours... missiles flew and so did tweets and now "all is well" again... Dow futures are up 700 points from overnight lows...





Nasdaq futures exploded a stunning 300 points off the lows...





For context, that's a 3.3% rally from overnight lows for Nasdaq futures...





The S&P 500 and Nasdaq surged to a new record high.



Quite a ride - makes you think...





Chinese stocks were down overnight, but closed before the tensions de-escalated...





Source: Bloomberg



European markets opened ugly amid the escalations but ramped all the way back and then some during the day (except UK)...





Source: Bloomberg



In the US, stocks soared - almost back top unch by the open and then as Trump spoke everything exploded...Trannies and Nasdaq outperformed...





 



A squeeze at the open and into the European close was enough to ignite the momo...





Source: Bloomberg



Notably, Defensives dominated Cyclicals intraday...





Source: Bloomberg



AAPL soared intraday (again) to a new record high as it seems the buyback machine is bidding for any dip...





But AAPL's vol remains notably decoupled from the price...





Source: Bloomberg



Meanwhile, Tesla continues to soar illogically becoming the most valuable US carmaker EVER (surpassing GM's 1999 record high)...





Source: Bloomberg



VIX was monkeyhammered back to a 12 handle and VIX futures crashed from over 17 overnight to a 13 handle...





But while VIX tumbled it remains notably decoupled from credit protection costs which have collapsed...





Source: Bloomberg



Total chaos reined in bond land overnight with yields crashing on the missile strike and exploding higher as tension apparently eased (yields ended the day around 4-5bps higher but that hid the dramatic moves)...





Source: Bloomberg



The 10Y Yield rose a stunning 17bps off overnight lows (one-month lows)...





Source: Bloomberg



 



 



Source: Bloomberg



The Dollar pushed higher to 2-week highs...





Source: Bloomberg



While most markets are pricing out geopolitical risk or any safe-haven premia, we note that the Swiss Franc is in great demand, soaring to its strongest against the euro since April 2017...





Source: Bloomberg



Offshore Yuan plunged overnight as the missiles struck only to rebound back to the highs..





Source: Bloomberg



Cryptos remain notably higher since Soleimani's death but gave back overnight gains today...





Source: Bloomberg



Bitcoin spiked up to $8500 overnight, but faded back as tensions de-escalated...





Source: Bloomberg



Copper was flat but overall commodities were lower on the day...





Source: Bloomberg



Gold (in USD) spiked above $1610 overnight before falling back..





Gold in JPY reached its highest since January 1980...





Source: Bloomberg



And Gold in Euros reached a new all-time record high...





Source: Bloomberg



Not to be outdone, Palladium spiked above $2100 overnight, a new record high...





Source: Bloomberg



And finally, oil... which exploded higher overnight, has collapsed as tensions de-escalated...



WTI topped $65.50 overnight only to crash to $59.15...





Brent spiked near $72 overnight, only to crash back below $65...





Source: Bloomberg



Brent is mirroring - almost perfectly - the move after the Saudi refinery attack... (today's drop is the biggest since the day after the Abqaiq attack)





Source: Bloomberg



And as the melt-up continues, we wonder if we see Nasdaq 10,000 before this all comes crashing down to reality...?





Source: Bloomberg




Tyler Durden

Wed, 01/08/2020 - 16:01


Tags

Business Finance

205
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Trade-Deal Rumorgasm Sparks Stock Meltup To Record Highs, Bond Bloodbath

zerohedge News trade-deal rumorgasm sparks stock meltup record highs bond bloodbath All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
Trade-Deal Rumorgasm Sparks Stock Meltup To Record Highs, Bond Bloodbath

It's a deal... again...




Oct 11: NEWS "Trump says the US has come to a substantial phase one deal with China"



Dec 12: RUMOR *TRUMP: GETTING VERY CLOSE TO A BIG DEAL WITH CHINA



Dec 12: RUMOR *U.S. NEGOTIATORS OFFER TO CANCEL NEW DEC. 15 CHINA TARIFFS: DJ



Dec 12: NEWS/

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RUMOR "Trump says he and China reached a 'phase one' trade deal in principle"




And that was good enough for new record highs for stocks (for a brief second, Nasdaq was back to unchanged after the early trade deal rumors faded, but that didn't last)...





After each surge, algos dragged stocks back to VWAP but the last headline barrage sparked buying into the close...





And there's only one clip that works for today...





Yuan exploded nine handles higher to four-month highs...





Source: Bloomberg



Sending expectations for a trade deal soaring...





Source: Bloomberg



30Y Yields soared the most in 3 months today...





Source: Bloomberg



Since the "phase one deal" was agreed again on Oct 11th, stocks are alone in their exuberance...





Source: Bloomberg



Cyclicals, as expected, dramatically outperformed...





Source: Bloomberg



Bank stocks soared as rates spiked and the yield curve steepened...





Source: Bloomberg



VIX was clubbed back to a 13 handle...





And as Equity protection costs plunged, so did credit with HY plunging back below 300bps...





Source: Bloomberg



Bond yields smashed higher on the initial rumors - dramatically worse reactions than for gold and stocks...





Source: Bloomberg



Treasury yields exploded higher on the day - all higher on the week now...





Source: Bloomberg



Notably 30Y Yields staled at the pre-Oct-FOMC levels as a strong auction stalled the carnage





Source: Bloomberg



The yield curve steepened dramatically...





Source: Bloomberg



The Dollar ended the day marginally higher after a huge rollercoaster...





Source: Bloomberg



Investors in sterling are the most hedged since the referendum...





Source: Bloomberg



USDJPY surged...





Source: Bloomberg



Yuan's huge spike broke it back above its 200DMA...





Source: Bloomberg



Cryptos rallied on the day but remain lower on the week...





Source: Bloomberg



Copper and Crude soared on the trade rumors, PMs dumped, but silver managed to bounce back...





Source: Bloomberg



Gold was chaotic today - surging above payrolls and running stops before the trade rumors hit and it collapsed...





And while gold was down, silver managed to hold on to decent gains...





Gold also tumbled in yuan terms...





Source: Bloomberg



Finally, as the S&P 500 Index pushes to record highs, trading volume is drying up in typical fashion for the final weeks of a year...





Source: Bloomberg



As Bloomberg notes, in another sign of a slowdown, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has seen fewer than 100 million shares traded for 42 straight days, the longest stretch since 2007.



Do you believe in miracles (and coincidences)? 2019=2013





Source: Bloomberg




Tyler Durden

Thu, 12/12/2019 - 16:00


Tags

Business Finance

212
40 Views

Brazilian Car Production Plunge Sparks Widespread Cutback In Work-Hours

zerohedge News brazilian production plunge sparks widespread cutback work-hours All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
Brazilian Car Production Plunge Sparks Widespread Cutback In Work-Hours

Investors searching for "green shoots" in the global manufacturing sector might not discover them in Brazil.  



Brazil's auto industry trade group Anfavea reports vehicle production plunged 7.1% in November, on a YoY basis. 





Anfavea said 227,455 vehicles (light vehicles, trucks, and buses) were produced last month, versus 244,771 over the

Read More
same period the previous year. For the first ten months of the year, vehicle production increased 2.7% from 2,702,306 in 2018 to 2,774,484 in 2019.



The trade group said the number of vehicles exported from Brazil continues to decline.



November vehicle exports were down 7.9% over the year. For the first ten months, vehicle exports plunged 33.2% over the prior year.



Brazil is one of the top five automakers in the world. The sector has struggled in the last several years as a synchronized global downturn gained momentum.



Brazil almost entered a recession during 1H19, mostly due to a manufacturing slowdown, could register below-trend growth as soon as 1H20.



The global macroeconomic situation across the world and in Brazil is so troubling at the moment that Ford had to close its plant in Sao Paulo. 



As a result of the downturn, Anfavea has said production in Q4 has fallen so sharply that three fewer working days have been seen for laborers in factories. 



Last week, we noted that the global auto industry continues to deteriorate, namely due to broke consumers after a decade of low-interest rates and endless incentives. 



We said, "the auto slowdown has sparked manufacturing recessions across the world, including manufacturing hubs in the US, Germany, India, and China. A prolonged downturn will likely result in stagnate global growth as world trade continues to decelerate into 2020."



As shown in the chart below, global car sales have crashed at a rate not seen since the last financial crisis. 





A global economic rebound depends on the auto industry, with no turn up visible, it's likely the global economy will continue to decelerate into 2020. 



 




Tyler Durden

Thu, 12/05/2019 - 19:05


Tags

Business Finance

211
67 Views

CLO Slump Sparks Warning: "There's More Volatility Coming"

zerohedge News slump sparks warning theres more volatility coming All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
CLO Slump Sparks Warning: "There's More Volatility Coming"

It's not just The Fed's short-term liquidity pipes that are clogged up, there appears to be some issues in the loan market, signaled by sharp declines in the $680 billion market for collateralized loan obligations (CLO), which could be an early warning sign that the junk bond market is headed for trouble. 



As President Trump pumps fake trade news, causing the 'Mother

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Of All Short Squeezes' in equity indexes to new highs, the CLO market in October fell 5%.





Source: Bloomberg



The rare decline in the CLO market was a result of the increasing uncertainties surrounding an economic slowdown.



S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows the CLO market has grown by $350 billion in the last three years, now stands at $680 billion, yield chasing investors mostly fueled the increase. 




"We think there's more volatility coming," said Maggie Wang, head of US CLO strategy at Citigroup, who spoke The Wall Street Journal.



"We recommend investors reduce risk and stay with cleaner portfolios and better managers."




This late in the cycle, a plunge in CLO bond prices with equities in parabolic up moves indicates something is wrong. 



The CLO tranches that are experiencing the most stress are in the double-B tranche. These risky CLO securities netted investors 10% through June. But through the end of October, most of the gains were wiped out. 




"If you think that double-B CLOs are giving a warning sign, that says something about high yield," said David Preston, head of CLO research at Wells Fargo & Co. "It's hard to see how both markets can be right."






Data from Palmer Square Capital Management shows Double-B CLO bond yields are about five percentage points higher than the yield of comparably rated junk bonds. 




"The yield differential hasn't been this wide since early 2016, when dropping oil prices sparked a selloff in both leveraged loans and high-yield bonds," The Journal noted. 




Between the chaos in the repo markets, now tamped down by the promise of endless liquidity from NYFRB, and the ongoing scare in the critical-for-junk-demand CLO market, some fear the end of the year could bring a notably negative surprise. 



None other than Credit Suisse's Zoltan Pozsar (the main in charge of market intelligence for securitized credit markets for The Fed in 2008) has a warning...




"There is a very real chance that, if we don't have a better set of pipes from the Fed and a more aggressive QE, then you have a very, very problematic year-end turn."




But for now, record-high stocks and trade-deal optimism are all that matters, right?




Tyler Durden

Mon, 11/11/2019 - 20:05


Tags

Business Finance

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'Lost In Translation' Trade-Talk Sparks Stock Surge, Bond Bloodbath, Precious Metals Pounding

zerohedge News lost translation trade-talk sparks stock surge bond bloodbath precious metals pounding All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share

'Lost In Translation' Trade-Talk Sparks Stock Surge, Bond Bloodbath, Precious Metals Pounding



 



 



A mis-translated story from China overnight on removing tariffs sparked a melt-up in stocks, bond yields, oil, and the dollar today (and slammed precious metals).



 



 



 



 



 


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After Overnight Chaos, Trump Trade Tweet Sparks Stock Buying-Panic

zerohedge News after overnight chaos trump trade tweet sparks stock buying-panic All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
After Overnight Chaos, Trump Trade Tweet Sparks Stock Buying-Panic

"home on Thursday", "home on Friday", small-deal, no-deal, mini-deal, skinny-deal, "meet with Trump on Friday" - all sent US equity markets flying overnight but when Trump talked of meeting Liu He in The Oval Office, markets got very excited.





Chinese stocks rallied overnight with the small-cap, tech-heavy indices dramatically outperforming...



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Source: Bloomberg



European stocks ended higher, helped by Trump's tweet...





Source: Bloomberg



 



Futures show the utter carnage of the overnight chop in US markets...





And in context some key technical levels...





All US Majors were higher on the day after Trump's tweet...Trannies are back in the green for the week...





Very late on we got headlines of a deal coming BUT smaller than expected...





Odds of a (major) trade deal lifted very modestly today...





Source: Bloomberg



 



Cash equity markets chopped around their key technical levels all day...





 



Momo was very choppy today...





Source: Bloomberg



Dramatic short-squeeze at the open and again in the afternoon...





Source: Bloomberg



Global bank stocks are worth keeping an eye on...





Source: Bloomberg



VIX tumbled to a 17 handle...





Treasury yields were notably higher again on the day, rising around 7-8bps across the curve...





Source: Bloomberg



Pushing 30Y Yields back above 2.15%...





Source: Bloomberg



The Dollar dropped near 3-week lows today...





Source: Bloomberg



As Yuan exploded higher overnight (a 7 handle spike at one point)...





Source: Bloomberg



Cable soared on optimistic Ireland headlines...





Source: Bloomberg



Cryptos drifted lower today...





Source: Bloomberg



Commodities were mixed given the dollar weakness - oil and copper rallied, PMs were slammed...





Source: Bloomberg



Gold traded back below $1500 even as ETF holdings reach record highs...





Source: Bloomberg



WTI rallied on chatter about extended, deeper OPEC production cuts





Source: Bloomberg



Softs sold off after WASDE forecasts (led by corn), heading for worst week since May...





Source: Bloomberg



And finally, US CEOs are signaling an imminent recession...






Tyler Durden

Thu, 10/10/2019 - 16:01


Tags

Business Finance

245
107 Views

Traders Buy Everything As Uber-Dovish FedSpeak Sparks Dollar Dump

zerohedge News traders everything uber-dovish fedspeak sparks dollar dump All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share

While Lam's promises started the optimism, and China PMI improved marginally, and another BoJo defeat helped sentiment...



 



 



 



 



 



 



 



The market held the overnight gains as a procession of Fed Speakers all toed the narrative line that rate-cuts are coming and The Fed needs to watch the world when it decides on policy...



 



 



 



 



 



 


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Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bid As Manufacturing Slump Sparks Stocks, Commodities Dump

zerohedge News bonds bitcoin bullion manufacturing slump sparks stocks commodities dump All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share

Global Manufacturing massacre catches up to 'Murica and stocks and bond yields tumble (after markets were seemingly surprised that Trump and Xi shot tariffs at each other - as they said they would - over the weekend)...





China was largely flat overnight, after a strong Monday...





Source: Bloomberg



Europe slipped into the red overnight with only Italy holding Monday's gains...





Source: Bloomberg



 



On the day, all U

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S major indices were red (with Small Caps and Trannies underperforming)...





NOTE - the initial down opening was weakness from trade headlines and the second leg down was the ISM manufacturing contraction.



 



Stocks have erased all of last week's "fake" phone call with China spike and are back in the red from Trump's tariff tantrum





 



All the major US equity indices are back below their 100DMAs (Small Caps < 200DMA)...





 



A Quintuple Top?





Cyclicals dominated the market moves today...





Source: Bloomberg



The market implied odds of a US-China trade deal have tumbled back towards zero...





Source: Bloomberg



Are bonds and stocks starting to recouple?





Source: Bloomberg



Treasury yields tumbled on the day (with the short-end outperforming)...





Source: Bloomberg



30Y Yields briefly topped 2.00% overnight but rejected that quickly to end the day notably lower...





Source: Bloomberg



The yield curve (2s10s) steepened back out of inversion (but of course 3m10Y - the more accurate indicator - remains dramatically inverted)...





Source: Bloomberg



After 6 straight days higher, the dollar index slipped lower today...





Source: Bloomberg



Yuan rallied inatrday, erasing last night's tumble...





Source: Bloomberg



EUR rallied after ECB's Mueller said there was no strong case to resume bond-buying...





Source: Bloomberg



Cable tumbled overnight (below $1.20 for first time since 2017) then rallied back into the green as BoJo lost his govt majority on Lee's defection...





Source: Bloomberg



Cryptos rallied today, extending yesterday's gains, helped by news that a Bitcoin ETF is finally coming...





Source: Bloomberg



With Bitcoin spiking back up to almost $10,800...





Source: Bloomberg



Very mixed picture in commodity-land as crude and copper dropped and PMs popped (led by Silver)...





Source: Bloomberg



Spot gold prices spiked up to $1550...





Source: Bloomberg



But it was silver that really exploded (2nd biggest spike since July 2016, Brexit vote)...





Source: Bloomberg



Crashing the gold/silver ration back to its lowest since Aug 2018...





Source: Bloomberg



WTI Crude plunged 3% intraday, back below $54, will it pull back into the recent range?





 



Finally, we note that it's not like the ISM Manufacturing signal should have been unexpected as Trucking indicators and Treasury yields have been signaling this was imminent for weeks...





Source: Bloomberg



And as Bloomberg's Eddie van der Walt notes, the copper/gold ratio is extending the year's declines, turning its back on the Trump-trade era and now focusing lingering economic risks, with 2016 lows coming into play.





Source: Bloomberg



It now takes only 3.6 ounces of gold to buy a ton of copper, that's down from more than 5 ounces earlier this year. Changes in the ratio between the two metals are a useful barometer of investor risk appetite, as the one acts as a haven and the other is an input into industrial applications.

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Gold Gains As China 'Stability' Sparks Dead-Cat-Bounce In Stocks

zerohedge News gold gains china stability sparks dead-cat-bounce stocks All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share

Despite stocks still being down 5% from pre-Powell levels, today's dead-cat-bounce has prompted a resurgence of 'everything is awesome' with several speaking heads proclaiming "the resilience" of markets...





 



It all began when China fixed the yuan a smidge stronger than expected...





 



China stocks managed a small bounce in the afternoon but it was not enough to recover from the US-driven catch down...





 



Hong Kong stocks are down

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7 of the last 8 days (its biggest drop since Feb 2018) back in the red for 2019...





 



European stocks did not play along with US markets, ending very weak into the close...





 



US Equities had their momentum ignited and despite a pull back into the EU close (and then reacceleration after), managed to squeeze hold gains with Nasdaq best...





NOTE - this was S&P's best day in 2 months and first up-day in the last seven.



But still ugly on the week...





After Europe closed, the short-squeeze in US stocks began...





 



Nasdaq led the day, bouncing off a key trendline level...





 



Dow futures soared over 900 points off the overnight lows hit after UST called China a currency manipulator... (seemed like Dow 26k was all the algos wanted)





NOTE - Dow futs plunged right after hours, erasing yesterday's late-day 200 point rampathon - before the currency manipulator calls.



Dow cash bounced off its 200DMA...





 



Today's gains were led by defensives...





 



On the heels of a proposed Opioid settlement, drug stocks were monkeyhammered...





 



NFLX is back in a bear market, down 20% from July highs and down 16 of the last 19 days...





 



BYND Barfed back to its secondary offering levels...down 35% from record highs





 



Credit spreads tightened very very modestly on the day...





 



Bonds and stocks decoupled during the US day session - both bid...





 



Treasury yields rose on the day, with the short-end underperforming (2Y +4bps, 30Y +1bps)... but remain dramatically lower on the week...





NOTE - 30Y yields slipped to unchanged from the US equity cash close.





 



The yield curve did not steepen, staying at its most inverted of the cycle...





 



Markets are pricing in 2.5 more rate-cuts in 2019 (completely ignoring Powell's insurance cut last week) - not at all what Jim Bullard was hinting at today...





 



The market is once again getting excited about the prospect of a 50bps cut in September...





 



The Dollar Index found support at pre-Powell levels and rallied today...





 



Cryptos ended lower on the day - despite a big pump-and-dump intraday...





 



Bitcoin spike above $12k intraday...





 



Oil was worst as the dollar rallied but PMs managed gains...





 



Gold was bid back up to overnight highs after tumbling on the CNY Fix...





 



Oil prices plummeted late on with WTI back below $54...





 



WTI closed in a bear market, down 21% from April highs...





 



Finally, with Negative-yielding debt now over $15 trillion, bitcoin and bullion seem like solid sanity trades...





The Value Line Geometric Composite (VLG), an index that tracks the median U.S. stock performance among a universe of roughly 1800 stocks, is at a critical level...





 



And as for stocks, its time to party like its 1998...





And so to summarize:



China fixed the yuan slightly stronger than expected and US equity markets soared rather unbelievably... but Chinese stocks did not, Hong Kong stocks did not, European stocks did not, the dollar rallied, crude crashed, gold gained, bonds were bid even as stocks squeezed higher, and Jim Bullard poured cold water on hopes for ever more rate-cuts. So everything else in the world was saying this is not a reduction in rhetoric, but US mega-tech stocks "know better."

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Yubico YubiKey lets you be me: Security blunder sparks recall of govt-friendly auth tokens

logicfish Security yubico yubikey lets security blunder sparks recall govt-friendly auth tokens All http://go.theregister.com   Discuss    Share
For FIPS sake!

Yubico is recalling one of its YubiKey lines after the authentication dongles were found to have a security weakness.…

171
154 Views

Open-source 64-ish-bit serial number gen snafu sparks TLS security cert revoke runaround

logicfish Security open-source 64-ish-bit serial number snafu sparks security cert revoke runaround All http://go.theregister.com   Discuss    Share
64 bits of cert ID on the wall, 64 bits of ID. Take the top bit down, don't pass it around, 63 bits of cert ID on the wall...

A bunfight over a controversial UAE mobile security company led to the discovery that millions of TLS security certificates have been improperly issued – thanks to a dodgy default configuration in popular certificate authority (CA) management software.…

193
143 Views

Open-source keygen snafu sparks 63-bit TLS cert revoke runaround

logicfish Security open-source keygen snafu sparks 63-bit cert revoke runaround All http://go.theregister.com   Discuss    Share
What a difference a bit makes. 64 little flowers... brought the revokes and the scowls

A mailing list bunfight over a controversial UAE mobile security company led to the discovery that millions of TLS security certificates had been improperly issued because of a dodgy default configuration in popular certificate authority (CA) key-generation software.…

172
211 Views

Up up and Huawei in my beautiful buffoon: Trump sparks panic by tying tech kit ban, charges to China trade negotiations

logicfish Security huawei beautiful buffoon trump sparks panic tying tech charges china trade negotiations All http://go.theregister.com   Discuss    Share
National security, sanctions allegations, pfft, you don't understand the art of the deal

Efforts to pressure the White House into banning Huawei hardware from America's networks may have backfired.…

1
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Folder Lock Programs - Specialist Computer Purchasing Advice You Want

RandrupRandrup00 Arts sparks All http://ccm.net   Discuss    Share
Password Protect Folder Windows 10 Home - Skilled Desktop Computer Purchasing Advice You Need







Trying to puzzle out which desktop computer to purchase can be extremely challenging. You possibly will not understand about all of the present technical specs and other capabilities that are available today. Should you need help, this information is proceeding to present you wi

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