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Stocks Scream Higher On Greatest Short-Squeeze In History, Bonds & Bullion Shrug

zerohedge News stocks scream higher greatest short-squeeze history bonds bullion shrug All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
Stocks Scream Higher On Greatest Short-Squeeze In History, Bonds & Bullion Shrug

"Fear" is almost over according to the market's "Virus Fear" trade...





Source: Bloomberg



The Dow is up by almost 18% in the last 2 days - the biggest 2-day surge since March 1933...





Source: Bloomberg



And Dow futures are up a stunning 20% from the limit-down l

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ows on Sunday night...





But bonds ain't buying it...





Source: Bloomberg



So, with stocks roaring higher once again, this seemed appropriate...





"Most Shorted" stocks are up a stunning 21% in the last two days - the greatest short-squeeze in history...





Source: Bloomberg



Dow futures show the insane scale of today's moves best - a 1000 point surge into yesterday's close, a failed 1000 point surge overnight (on the "deal"), another failed 1000 point surge into and through the cash open, and then a 1500 points surge that held into the close...



BUT - Things "went a little bit slightly turbo" into the close as Bernie Sanders spoiled the party by threatening to hold up the vote on the bill...





Knocking stocks lower and sending Nasdaq red on the day...





AAPL also did not help as reports came out that it may delay its 5G phone...





However, on the last two days, stocks are up strong...





Airlines, Cruise operators, and restaurants all soared massively today again...





Source: Bloomberg



Boeing was the most ridiculous of all stocks...





Source: Bloomberg



There's nothing like a government handout to make everything better! What a farce!



VIX and stocks have decoupled (are people seriously buying calls to lever-up into this rebound? Or is this hedgers?). VIX was unchanged today as stocks soared...





Source: Bloomberg



Treasury yields were mixed today - short-end bid (less than 5Y -2bps), long-end offered (30Y +2bps), belly flat but relative to stocks huge moves, bonds basically shrugged...





Source: Bloomberg



Starting at around 1400ET, someone decided to dump the long-bond hard...





Source: Bloomberg



US T-Bills have negative yields out to the end of the year...





Source: Bloomberg



Both HY and IG bonds rallied today (thogh HYG rolled over late on as LQD was bid into the close)...





Source: Bloomberg



Before we leave bond-land, it is worth pointing out that the number of bonds trading at a spread over 1,000 bps (the barometer of distress) neared 1,900 this week - the highest since 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It was less than 300 at the start of March.





Source: Bloomberg



As Bloomberg noted, the spread on the entire junk bond index flipped above 1,000 bps on Friday, and strategists expect it to exceed 1,200 bps soon. In addition, there’s a whole world of grief in the $1 trillion leveraged-loan market, which is trading on average below 80 cents on the dollar, a level typically associated with distress.



But, HYG - the HY Bond ETF - has screamed higher today, back into a huge premium to underlying NAV...





Source: Bloomberg



The Dollar tumbled for the second day in a row (after 11 days straight up)...





Source: Bloomberg



Cryptos broadly slipped lower today...





Source: Bloomberg



Someone was bidding oil again during the US session...





Source: Bloomberg



Spot Gold and futures remain decoupled though the spread did compress from their extremes yesterday...





Source: Bloomberg



Palladium exploded higher today (though all PMs are notably higher since The Fed went "all-in")...





Source: Bloomberg



After surging Tuesday, Palladium futures in New York skyrocketed 26% Wednesday, the biggest gain in records dating back to 1986.



Finally, we've seen this all before... As Bloomberg details, historically expectations are low after a big rally. The 9.4% jump in the S&P 500 yesterday was the 10th largest in history. The benchmark S&P fell seven of the previous nine times with an average loss of 0.7%.





While the most intense sell-off may be behind us, there’s still room for the markets to fall. For one, the current drawdown is 34%. It is less than the peak-to-trough falls in the previous crises, including the 57% slump in 2008-2009, the 49% drop after the burst of the dot.com bubble and the 48% retreat during the 1973 oil crisis.



And for now, it appears the 1929 analog is holding up...





Source: Bloomberg



It’s certainly good news that the fiscal stimulus of more than $2 trillion is on the verge of getting passed in Congress. But the stimulus and various Fed actions are necessary but insufficient conditions for the market to bottom, and worse still, the dollar funding crisis is rapidly re-accelerating as month-end looms... having erased all of the 'improvement' offered by The Fed...





Source: Bloomberg



And don't forget - tomorrow is jobless claims and it's going to be a doozy!



If all of that doesn't scare you - this should - the sovereign credit risk of the USA is surging higher since helicopter money began to creep into reality...





Source: Bloomberg




Tyler Durden

Wed, 03/25/2020 - 16:03
207
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Gold Nears 7 Year Highs As Stocks, Bonds Shrug Off Soaring Geopolitical Risk

zerohedge News gold nears year highs stocks bonds shrug soaring geopolitical risk All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
Gold Nears 7 Year Highs As Stocks, Bonds Shrug Off Soaring Geopolitical Risk

After an ugly open last night in futures trading, the machines went on a buying spree lifting the majors back to unchanged. Notice the weakness at the Asia open and European open and buying panic at US open...



BTFWW3?





And why not - who would be worried by this?



Read More
">

پاسخ کاربران ایرانی به انتشار تصویر پرچم آمریکا توسط ترامپ. pic.twitter.com/fWU2jVkSxL


— روزنامه ایران (@IranNewspaper) January 6, 2020

So far in 2020, bonds and bullion are easily outperforming





Source: Bloomberg



Chinese stocks ended mixed overnight (with small cap, tech outperforming)...





Source: Bloomberg



Despite buying pressure all day, European markets could not get back to even...





Source: Bloomberg



In the US, Trannies underperformed, Nasdaq led, and The Dow, S&P, and Small Caps clung to unchangedish, pushing notably higher into the last few minutes...





 



AAPL had an ugly open, but once again was panic-bid back into the green to test $300...





 



And we note that AAPL and its volatility remain notably decoupled...





Source: Bloomberg



VIX and stocks remain decoupled but for the 4th day in a row, vol was clubbed like a baby seal intraday...





 



 



Source: Bloomberg



Treasury yields ended the day higher with the long-end underperforming (2Y +2bps, 30Y +4bps)





Source: Bloomberg



The 30Y Yield found support from a few weeks ago and bounced (still lower yield on the year)...





Source: Bloomberg



Similarly, the yield curve steepened off support, after flattening dramatically in the first two days of the year...





Source: Bloomberg



The dollar extended its decline from Friday's highs...





Source: Bloomberg



Cryptos are higher after the weekend's rising geopolitical tensions with Ripple soaring...





Source: Bloomberg



Bitcoin was up again - 4th day in a row, longest streak of gains since July - back above $7500...





Source: Bloomberg



Commodities were bid last night (crude and PMs) as mideast tensions rose but the US equity market open prompted selling...





Source: Bloomberg



Gold held on to its gains from the weekend's headlines...





Pushing Spot Gold to its highest since April 2013...





Source: Bloomberg



But WTI Crude ended unchanged, giving back the risk premium...





 



Finally, while the dollar is clinging to support against its also-declining fiat friends, its is collapsing against gold...





Source: Bloomberg




Tyler Durden

Mon, 01/06/2020 - 16:00


Tags

Business Finance

214
80 Views

Stocks Shrug Off World War 3 Risk, But Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin Surge To Start The Year

zerohedge News stocks shrug world risk bonds bullion bitcoin surge start year All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
Stocks Shrug Off World War 3 Risk, But Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin Surge To Start The Year

World War 3 worries? Meh, we've got The Fed to handle that shit!!





Weakness in early going in stocks - due to the potential for global war after Soleimani's killing - were nothing but an opportunity to buy the f**king dip once again today...(as the machines used VWAP as support)...




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>

As the market immediately priced in a Fed rate-cut to save the world...





Source: Bloomberg



Oil prices spiked but ended only around 3% higher on the day...





Of course, defense stocks soared...





Source: Bloomberg



But bonds and bullion were bid as safe-havens...





On the week, only Nasdaq is notably higher...





And since the start of 2020, only Small Caps are red...





VIX and stocks remain decoupled...





Source: Bloomberg



Credit markets widened notably today, relatively more than equity protection...





Source: Bloomberg



Treasury yields collapsed since the start of 2020 with 30Y yields down 13bps...





Source: Bloomberg



The 30Y Yield dropped to 4-week lows...





Source: Bloomberg



The yield curve flattened dramatically...





Source: Bloomberg



The dollar rallied for the second day in a row (despite some volatility today)...





Source: Bloomberg



Cryptos were notably bid today following the Soleimani killing...





Source: Bloomberg



After another drop below $7k, Bitcoin surged today...





Source: Bloomberg



Copper tumbled today as gold and oil rallied...





Source: Bloomberg



Gold topped $1550 - back to its highest in 4 months...





And as Bloomberg reports, heightened Middle East tensions are boosting bets on further gains for gold as a haven asset. Volatility in call options giving holders the right to buy futures at a pre-set price reached the highest in almost three months against puts, which provide the right to sell the metal.





The skew shows that investors are increasingly bullish on bullion, even with prices already near a six-year high in the wake of the U.S. air strike that killed a top Iranian commander.



Source: Bloomberg



Finally, US macro data is negative and disappointing notably (today's ISM at 10 year lows) with stocks just shy of record highs...





Source: Bloomberg



And some remember what happened last time...





Source: Bloomberg



 




Tyler Durden

Fri, 01/03/2020 - 16:01


Tags

Business Finance

159
49 Views

UK public sector IT chiefs shrug off breach threats: The data we hold isn't that important

logicfish Security public sector chiefs shrug breach threats data hold isnt that important All https://go.theregister.co.uk   Discuss    Share
Are you for real? splutters surveyor Sophos

Half of UK public sector IT chiefs think the data they're responsible for protecting is less valuable than private sector information, according to a survey by antivirus firm Sophos.…

237
59 Views

China Bond Markets Shrug Off Soaring Hyper-Pig-flation (For Now)

zerohedge News china bond markets shrug soaring hyper-pig-flation All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
China Bond Markets Shrug Off Soaring Hyper-Pig-flation (For Now)

As we detailed previously, African swine fever ('pig-Ebola'), which has been raging across China, and Asia, has decimated pork supplies. 





Since we first reported on China's 'pig Ebola' epidemic, China pork prices have doubled for 1.4 billion people.



As @AgriTrends notes, "hyper-inflation is here..."

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/strong>





And as we detailed here, that has filtered through to soaring consumer price inflation overall - at its highest since 2013...





Source: Bloomberg



But, with Chinese bond yields shrugging off the inflationary push...





Source: Bloomberg



Real China bond yields are set to go negative for the first time in seven years...





Source: Bloomberg



Bloomberg notes that while extraordinarily low yields - adjusting for inflation or not - have become the norm across the developed world, it’s rare in emerging markets.



By contrast with China, South Korea’s 10-year bonds offer 2% real yields. Bondholders in India are getting more than 2.5% after accounting for inflation running at almost 4%.




“The bond market understands that this is purely supply, it’s not a general wage inflation or inflation in the economy,” said Edmund Ng, chief investment officer at Eastfort Asset Management, who previously worked at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.



“The African swine fever will not last forever.”




Indeed, National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Mao Shengyong said Friday that pork prices should gradually return to a “normal range,” and played down concerns about inflation.



But, not everyone is buying that propaganda.



Pork prices are likely to remain elevated for some time, said Betty Wang, a senior economist at ANZ. She said farmers had culled so many pigs that it would take a while for supplies to build up again. 




"If people feel that food inflation is going up, it may spur policy actions," she added, although it wasn't clear just how Beijing can find a quick and easy substitute to domestic farms.




The apparent trade truce between China and the US could be what China needs to stabilize its pork supplies.



“The market is more concerned about other macro factors,” said Li Haitao, deputy director of fund investment at Hexa AMC, most notably, the collapse in its economic growth...





Source: Bloomberg




Tyler Durden

Tue, 10/22/2019 - 19:05


Tags

Business Finance


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