223
12 Views

March Jobs Preview: The First Negative Print In Ten Years, And Then All Hell Breaks Loose

zerohedge News march jobs preview first negative print years then hell breaks loose All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
March Jobs Preview: The First Negative Print In Ten Years, And Then All Hell Breaks Loose

As RanSquawk notes, the data for March are already stale, given the release of the timelier initial jobless claims data, which showed another record high number of claims, and some 10 million laid off workers in the past 2 weeks. Additionally, the survey period of the BLS Employment Situation Report runs through the month ending 12th March, and therefore does not capture the

Read More
full effect of the coronavirus disruptions on the US labor market, with "stay at home" orders being issued only after the 19th March in some US states.



Still, even though it captures only the slowdown in the first half of the month, the March jobs report will almost certainly show a decline in monthly payrolls - the first since Sept 2010 - and breaking the longest stretch of positive payroll prints on record.





That said none of that matters: with the Fed having now gone full tilt in perpetuity no matter what the data says, we know that the data for the next 3-6 months will be catastrophic, with Goldman predicting 15% unemployment in Q2, meaning that in the next two months tens of millions of people will lose their job.





As such what the BLS reports tomorrow is completely meaningless. Still, for what it's worth, here's what Wall Street expects:



  • Non-farm Payrolls: Exp. -100K, Prev. +273K

  • Unemployment Rate: Exp. 3.8%, Prev. 3.5%

  • Avg. Earnings M/M: Exp. 0.2%, Prev. 0.3%

  • Avg. Earnings Y/Y: Exp. 3.0%, Prev. 3.0%

  • Avg. Work Week Hours: Exp. 34.1, Prev. 34.4

  • Private Payrolls: Exp. -163k, Prev. +228k

  • Manufacturing Payrolls: Exp. -20k, Prev. +15k

  • Government Payrolls: Prev. +45k

  • U6 Unemployment Rate: Prev. +7.0%

  • Labor Force Participation: Prev. 63.4%

Speaking of Goldman, the bank estimates nonfarm payrolls declined 180k in March, below consensus of -100k. In addition to employment surveys falling into contractionary territory and jobless claims rebounding dramatically, sharp declines in commuting patterns in both New York City and Seattle indicate a sizeable drag from the coronavirus in those MSAs during the survey week. Goldman also estimate declining payrolls in the food services, accommodation, recreation services, social assistance, and temporary help subindustries (both in these cities and nationwide). Goldman also thinks the unemployment rate rose three tenths to 3.8%, with risks skewed towards a larger increase (consensus 3.8%). Jobless claims data indicate that the pace of layoffs increased sharply and an NPR/PBS poll found that 18% of employees were laid off or had their hours reduced. The silver lining, at least for those who still have jobs, is that the average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, reflecting negative calendar effects but a possible composition shift towards higher-paid workers (consensus also +0.2%/+3.0%).



And as noted above, while Goldman looks for a weaker-than-consensus report tomorrow, the March employment numbers are already fairly stale and insignificant in our view, "because the April report will likely show job losses in the millions."



Here are some general observations courtesy of RanSquawk:



TREND RATES: The trend rates are meaningless going into the data, given disruptions caused by coronavirus. After the release of the February data, the 3-month average trend rate was at 243k (prev. 239k); 6-month was 231k (prev. 220k); 12-month at 201k (prev. 178k).



ADP EMPLOYMENT: ADP reported 27k payrolls were shed from the US economy in March, better than the consensus view for -150k. However, while the data appear encouraging, the ADP itself noted that the survey period ran through the 12th of the month, meaning that much of the COVID impact has not been captured in the data. It is also worth noting that the official BLS employment situation report also runs through that same period and therefore may be subject to similar caveats.



WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: Weekly jobless claims for the week ending 28th March rose to a fresh record high 6.648mln, around double last week’s tally which was in itself a record high. The latest spike in jobless claims will not have an impact on the BLS data; in the corresponding survey period for the BLS data, initial jobless claims rose from 211k to 282k. But ahead, the data signals April’s Employment Situation Report will be grim, given accelerating claims; and ahead, analysts are not convinced the peak is in yet. Total layoffs between the March and April payroll surveys look destined to reach perhaps 16-to-20mln, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics, which would be consistent with the unemployment rate rising to 13- to-16%. “We have consistently argued from the beginning that the USD 2trln CARES Act is nothing like big enough; these data, and the numbers which will follow, make another huge package inevitable,” Pantheon said.



Additionally, some individuals may classify themselves as “employed but not at work”, which could limit the magnitude of the increase in the jobless rate tomorrow. Taken together, the March unemployment rate likely rose three tenths to 3.8%. And while the risks tomorrow are skewed towards a larger increase, the majority of the unemployment rise will occur in April and subsequent reports, with the jobless rate reaching 15% by midyear.





CHALLENGER JOB CUTS: Job cuts announced by US-based employers surged to 222,288 in March from 56,660, the highest monthly tally since January 2009; challenger noted that the data did not include the hundreds of thousands of workers who were furloughed in March. "The virus has caused total whiplash for HR, hiring managers, and recruiters. The labor data for February showed a strong economy with a tight labor market. Companies were fighting for talent across industries. Now, millions of workers have filed for unemployment, companies have frozen hiring, and in many cases, cut operations or closed completely," Challenger said. It notes that the shut-down of nonessential businesses caused 141,844 cuts, primarily in entertainment/leisure; of the 54,300 cuts announced where no specific reason was provided, Challenger suspects many are due to COVID-19. Challenger notes that despite the jump in job cut announcements, hiring announcements have also surged during the outbreak. Instacart recently announced they would hire 300,000 new drivers, while grocery stores, like Kroger and Albertsons, are hiring tens of thousands of workers, and Pizza Hut, Domino’s, and Papa John’s are hiring thousands of delivery drivers. "The pandemic has created an opportunity for grocers and food delivery services, as well as consumer products delivery services, to thrive right now. The issue is whether they can find the workers to do jobs that now come with inherent risks that did not previously exist," said Challenger.



BUSINESS SURVEYS: Not all of the business surveys are in ahead of the March jobs report. However, the March manufacturing ISM report saw the employment sub-index fall by 3.1 points to 43.8; ISM said this was the eighth month of employment contraction, and at a faster rate compared to February. It is again worth highlighting that the manufacturing sector accounts for around 11% of the US economy, and as such, it is difficult to infer what the ISM means for the BLS Data, particularly since manufacturing surveys have held up better than their services equivalent, of late. Additionally, some analysts, like those at UBS, have questioned the usefulness of survey data at the moment, noting that they are subject to quirks around a) some of the treatment of supply chains, which has flattered data, b) the fact that many respondents will not be replying to surveys during the virus disruption period, and c) survey data will give more accurate assessments during 'normal' times, perhaps not as much in unusual times.





CORONAVIRUS: As shown below, Seattle public parking and NYC subway usage both declined 30% during the survey week (and by -14% and -18% on the Monday of the survey week, respectively), consistent with a sizeable drag on economic activity and employment from the 6.5mn payroll employees in these cities. And across the entire country, OpenTable reservations declined 25% year-on-year during the survey week, with declines in 35 out of 37 major cities on Monday of the survey week. Because of the coronavirus, expected declining payrolls in the food services, accommodation, recreation services, social assistance, and temporary help subindustries in this week’s report (both nationwide and in New York City and

Seattle).





And next month, expect all hell to break loose.




Tyler Durden

Fri, 04/03/2020 - 01:00
169
99 Views

Xerox slurps something that isn't HP Inc: Brit managed print services houses Altodigital and ITEC Connect

logicfish Business xerox slurps something that isnt brit managed print services houses altodigital itec connect All https://go.theregister.co.uk   Discuss    Share
Prices undisclosed but you can bet it was cheaper

Xerox might not have been able to prise HP Inc stock from the hands of shareholders yet but it has snaffled British print services specialists Altodigital and ITEC Connect for an undisclosed sum.…

181
51 Views

India’s peak IT body tells outsourcers to check contract cancellation fine print while COVID-19 reigns

logicfish Business indias peak body tells outsourcers check contract cancellation fine print while covid-19 reigns All https://go.theregister.co.uk   Discuss    Share
In case force majeure means they can't deliver. And right now some haven't delivered detailed continuity plans

India’s peak body for the IT and business process outsourcing industries – NASSCOM - has advised its members to read the fine print in their services contracts so they understand the implications of a long lockdown that leaves them unable to deliver services.…

239
59 Views

September Payrolls Preview: Can We Get The First Negative Print In 10 Years?

zerohedge News september payrolls preview first negative print years All https://www.zerohedge.com   Discuss    Share
September Payrolls Preview: Can We Get The First Negative Print In 10 Years?

After the surprisingly poor August payroll report which saw the US economy add only 139K jobs, analysts expect the disappointing trend to continue and forecast a below-trend 145k nonfarm payrolls added to the US economy in September, with earnings growth seen at 0.3% M/M, and the jobless rate seen unchanged at 3.7%.



As RanSquawk cautions, indicators are decidedly mixed

Read More
with a strong negative bias going into the data: the ADP private payrolls gauge saw a miss against expectations with the prior number revised substantially lower, while initial jobless claims have essentially moved sideways; Challenger’s job cuts data improved, though employers are beginning to see negative effect from trade wars; the employment sub-components within the ISM has pared back in the month; and on wages, consumer wage expectations has become a touch more pessimistic. The data will be released at 8:30 EDT; with the Fed in data-dependent mode, it is also worth noting that Fed chair Powell will deliver remarks at 2:00pm EDT. Today's market response to the dismal non-mfg ISM (whose employment index suggests we may see the first sub-zero payrolls print since September 2009) was telling: the market is now in full blown "bad news is great news for more Fed easing" mode, and the risk tomorrow is clearly to the upside, with a stronger than expected number likely to offset today's surge in rate cut odds for the rest of 2019, leading to a adverse market reaction.



Courtesy of RanSquawk, here is what the street expects:



  • Non-farm Payrolls: Exp. 148k, Prev. 130k (whisper is below 100K)

    • Private Payrolls: Exp.133k, Prev. 96k.

    • Manufacturing Payrolls: Exp. 4k, Prev. 3k.

    • Government Payrolls: Prev. 34k.


  • Unemployment Rate: Exp. 3.7%, Prev. 3.7%. (FOMC currently projects 3.7% at end-2019, and 4.2% in the longer run).
    • U6 Unemployment Rate: Prev. 7.2%.

    • Labour Force Participation: Prev. 63.2%.


  • Avg. Earnings Y/Y: Exp. 3.2%, Prev. 3.2%.

  • Avg. Earnings M/M: Exp. 0.3%, Prev. 0.4%.

  • Avg. Work Week Hours: Exp. 34.4hrs, Prev. 34.4hrs.

SUMMARY:



The Street expects to see 148k nonfarm payrolls (whisper expectations are of a sub-100K print) added to the US economy in September. The three-month trend rate of employment growth is 156k, rising from the 133k going into the prior Employment Situation Report; the six-month trend rate is unchanged at 150k, while the 12-month pace has edged lower to 173k from 186k. In its below-trend preview of the payrolls report, Nomura says that it expects a 115k contribution from private firms and a 10k boost from government payrolls, some of which will likely reflect an influx of temporary Census workers for the second consecutive month.



HOUSEHOLD SURVEY:



While the establishment survey results in August were somewhat weaker than expected, household survey data was more positive. As Nomura points out, the prime age (25-54) labor force participation rate (LFPR) rose 0.6pp to 82.6%, matching the recent high from January and marking the largest one-month increase since April 1960, driven by a jump in prime age LFPR for women (Figure 5). That helped push aggregate LFPR up 0.2pp to 63.2%. The increase in LFPR helped put upward pressure on the unemployment rate to keep it unchanged at 3.7% (Figure 6).





In September, much of that large increase in prime age LFPR will revert, putting downward pressure on aggregate LFPR and the unemployment rate. Since 1950, prime age LFPR has increased more than 0.4pp 16 times. In the next month, both the mean and median changes showed a 0.2pp decline. A modest drop in the LFPR would be enough to lower the unemployment rate 0.1pp to 3.6%.



US ADP NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT:



ADP’s gauge of private payrolls showed 135k additions in September, missing the consensus 140k, while the prior was revised lower from 190k to 157k. The average monthly job growth for the past three months is at 145k, last year the average stood at 214k for the same period, showing signs the job market is slowing, ADP said. Pantheon Macroeconomics stated it is not as soft as it seems, however, as it incorporates official payroll data from the prior month, which only saw a rise of 96K, adding constraint to the September ADP headline print. PM notes the data does not change its forecast for the official BLS data: “The downshift in labour demand in all the surveys we follow suggest job gains will be down to just 50-to-75K by the turn of next year.” It also states that with the lower revisions has no implication for revisions to the official data on Friday. Since 2012, ADP has tended to overestimate private employment growth during August and September on an as-reported basis relative to what the BLS shows the following Friday (Figure 4). Goods and service industries were relatively healthy in the ADP report.





JOBLESS CLAIMS:



In the payrolls survey week, weekly jobless claims data printed 210k versus the 211k going into last month’s payrolls data. The underlying trend remains steady around 215k, Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests, arguing that most of the downward pressure on payroll growth is coming from scaled-back hiring, not lay-offs; “that’s normal in the early stages of a downturn, but if the economy continues to weaken, we would expect claims to begin rising, perhaps by the year-end” Pantheon says.



CHALLENGER JOB CUTS:



This month’s layoffs data declined in September, falling 22.3% M/M and 24.8% Y/Y, making it the lowest monthly total since April. The prior months’ data (Aug) was the fourth highest job cut of 2019, and Challenger notes that employers are beginning to feel effects of the trade war, with trade difficulties being attributed to around 10,000 of the job cuts announced in the last month. Challenger notes that employers held off on making any large-scale employment decisions, as “companies will monitor consumer behaviour, government regulation or deregulation, and market conditions during the final quarter of the year in order to make staffing decisions for next year." The job cuts were led by retail (8132), Industrial Goods (5067), Automotive Companies (4912) with the consultancy noting an expected rise in coming months for this sector if the strikes at General Motors (GM) continues and the fallout impacts suppliers.



BUSINESS SURVEYS:



Within the ISM manufacturing survey, the Employment Index registered 46.3 falling 1.1 points from August, and the lowest since January 2016.  ISM noted that comments were generally neutral concerning hiring for attrition, labor force reduction comments were minimal, but it did note that 29% of employment comments were cautious regarding employment expansion. ISM also notes that the manufacturing ISM's employment sub index above 50.8, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the BLS data on manufacturing employment. In the non-manufacturing ISM report, the employment sub-component fell by 2.7 points to 50.4; respondents noted that the number of new employees was starting to level-off, and a tightening workforce was leading to a more competitive market for qualified potential employees.



Correlating the ISM Employment print with the monthly change in payrolls would suggest a sub-zero payrolls number. If confirmed, this would be the first negative monthly payrolls number in 10 years, since September 2009.





Manufacturing employment indicators in September were mixed. Employment subindices on a number regional Federal Reserve Bank manufacturing surveys improved during the month. Markit’s manufacturing PMI employment series also improved in September. However, ISM’s manufacturing employment subindex declined further below 50, likely as a result of continued weak global growth, suggesting some downside risk for manufacturing hiring.



WAGES:



In the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence, the differential between jobs ‘plentiful’ and jobs ‘hard to get’ fell, auguring poorly for the unemployment rate. Analysts look for average hourly earnings to rise by +0.3% M/M, the pace paring a touch versus last month, but would still be encouraging. The Y/Y is seen remaining at 3.2%. The CB’s consumer confidence report stated that, regarding short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement decreased from 24.7 to 19.0 percent, but the proportion expecting a decrease also declined, to 5.6 from 6.3.



REVISIONS:



As in August, September payroll growth tends to be weak in the preliminary release. This may reflect a recurring seasonal bias in early vintages, and Goldman is assuming a 20-30k drag for the monthly pace reported tomorrow. As shown in Exhibit 2, first-print September job growth has decelerated in 4 of the last 5 years, and it has missed consensus in 8 of the last 10. At the same time, the 2017 and 2018 observations probably overstate the bias (due to major hurricanes in both months). There is also the possibility of positive revisions in tomorrow’s report that might reverse some of the August bias (the September employment report has included upward revisions in 5 of the last 8 years, including +87k last year). Given these offsetting considerations, the first-print bias as a roughly neutral factor for tomorrow’s report as a whole.





ARGUING FOR A STRONGER REPORT:



  • Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims were flat-to-down in the four weeks between the payroll reference periods—averaging 213k—and are consistent with a very low pace of layoffs. Continuing claims declined by 45k from survey week to survey week, the largest sequential improvement since April.

  • Labor market slack. With the labor market somewhat beyond full employment, the dwindling availability of workers is one factor weighing on job growth this year. In past tight labor markets however, payroll growth has tended to reaccelerate in September (for example in 2000 and 2007). Some firms likely pulled forward hiring into September, anticipating a shortage of applicants in Q4.

  • Census hiring. While temporary employment related to the 2020 Census has significantly lagged that of 1999 and 2009, it picked up meaningfully in the August report (+25k). Address canvassing continued into September, and we expect the level of Census employment to rise further from 27k in August to 40k or somewhat higher, contributing around 15k to monthly job growth in tomorrow’s report.

  • Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas declined by 15k in September to 41k and were 13k below their September 2018 level. The sequential decrease in announced layoffs primarily reflects reversals in the technology (-12k) and government (-4k) sectors, which rose sharply in August.

ARGUING FOR A WEAKER REPORT:



  • Employer surveys. September business activity surveys were on net weaker than expected for both the manufacturing and service sectors. The employment components of those surveys rebounded for the manufacturing sector (+1.8 to 51.4) but more importantly, they declined for the services sector (-0.7 to 52.7). As shown in Exhibit 1, the level of these surveys is consistent with an underlying pace of job growth of around 130-160k per month. Service-sector job growth rose 84k in August and averaged 121k over the last six months, while manufacturing payroll employment rose 3k in August, in line with its average over the last six months.

  • ADP. The payroll-processing firm ADP reported a 135k increase in September private employment, 5k below consensus and in line with the 136k average pace over the three prior months. While somewhat weaker than our estimates, the report still suggests that the underlying pace of job growth remains firm.

POTENTIAL SOURCES OF NOISE:



  • Will Census workers boost topline NFP again? There will likely be another 5-10k temporary Census workers reported in September according to Nomura. The Census Bureau noted in August that up to 40k temporary field staff had started address canvassing as part of the decennial 2020 census. With only 27k temporary Census workers reported by the BLS, 25k of which came in August, there is room for an additional 5-10k in September.

  • Will the GM strike affect nonfarm payrolls in September? Probably not. The strike took place after the BLS establishment survey reference period (the pay period containing the 12th of the month). The BLS strike report for September showed no new workers on strike during the CES survey reference pay period. However, if the strike does not end this week, it could show up in the strike report for October, with a reference week of 7 October, and potentially affect October NFP.

Source: RanSquawk, Goldman, Nomura




Tyler Durden

Thu, 10/03/2019 - 21:12


Tags

Labor
Business Finance

168
36 Views

HP printer small print says kit phones home data on whatever you print – and then some

logicfish Security printer small print says phones home data whatever then some All http://go.theregister.com   Discuss    Share
Security engineer actually reads privacy policy to his horror

Hewlett-Packard Inc's printers don't just slurp the contents of your wallet at a frightening rate. They also guzzle a surprising amount of data on you and whatever you're printing.…

1
27 Views

Is the Business Branding Failing

Gade24Dugan Arts design brand print All http://designbrandprint.bravesites.com   Discuss    Share
Business owners who really like their branding images and logos can get tunnel vision when it comes to the need for updating. The truth is that branding can get old and stale and start to fail the business. It has to be bold, fresh, and presented differently every few years. If there is no change, the competition will have an edge over attracting new customers.







Huge Comp
1
189 Views

Is the Business Branding Failing

BredahlKirkeby3 Arts design brand print All http://screenprintingweb.soup.io   Discuss    Share
Business owners who really like their branding images and logos can get tunnel vision when it comes to the need for updating. The truth is that branding can get old and stale and start to fail the business. It has to be bold, fresh, and presented differently every few years. If there is no change, the competition will have an edge over attracting new customers.







Huge Comp
1
61 Views

complete guide for t-shirt printing business

brushyourideas Security t-shirt ecommerce software print All https://www.brushyourideas.com   Discuss    Share
Want to start your own online t-shirt printing business? Here is a detailed guide that will acquaint you with the nitty gritties of starting your customized t-shirt online store.

Newsletter
Sign up for our newsletter


Unsubscribe at Anytime | Privacy Policy
Welcome, DisDroidians

Send a donation to get your link on the front page - send 0.5mBTC - Or your RSS feed - send 4mBTC.

Please Donate
Send a donation to get your link on the front page - send 0.2mBTC - Or your RSS feed - send 2mBTC here:

 
 
 

Banner

Most Viewed Stories
Latest Comments
Statistics
Disdroid.co.uk - ranking and value