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<p>The most popular &#x201C;meat alternatives&#x201D; are burgers, followed by nuggets</p><br /><p>If you eat meat but you&#x2019;ve recently tried a plant-based burger, you&#x2019;re not alone. Impossible Foods, maker of fake meat products that look and taste like the real thing, estimates that 95% of its customers are omnivores. In a decade, these alternatives may make up 10% of the meat industry. Here&#x2019;s how the category is gaining muscle.</p><p>Read Full Story</p><div class="feedflare"><br /> <br
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Caution: Mean Reversion Ahead

Authored by by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,



If you watch CNBC long enough, you are bound to hear an investment professional urging viewers to buy stocks simply because of low yields in the bond markets. While the advice may seem logical given historically low yields in the U.S. and negative yields abroad, most of these professionals fail to provide viewers w

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ith a mathematically grounded analysis of their expected returns for the equity markets.



Mean reversion is an extremely important financial concept and it is the “reversion” part that is so powerful.  The simple logic behind mean reversion is that market returns over long periods will fluctuate around their historical average. If you accept that a security or market tends to revolve around its mean or a trend line over time, then periods of above normal returns must be met with periods of below normal returns.



If the professionals on CNBC understood the power of mean reversion, they would likely be more enthusiastic about locking in a 2% bond yield for the next decade.



Expected Bond Returns

Expected return analysis is easy to calculate for bonds if one assumes a bond stays outstanding till its maturity (in other words it has no early redemption features such as a call option) and that the issuer can pay off the bond at maturity.



Let’s walk thought a simple example. Investor A and B each buy a two-year bond today priced at par with a 3% coupon and a yield to maturity of 3%. Investor A intends to hold the bond to maturity and is therefore guaranteed a 3% return. Investor B holds the bond for one year and decides to sell it because the bond’s yield fell and thus the bond’s price rose. In this case, investor B sold the bond to investor C at a price of 101. In doing so he earned a one year total return of 4%, consisting of a 3% coupon and 1% price return. Investor B’s outperformance versus the yield to maturity must be offset with investor C’s underperformance versus the yield to maturity of an equal amount. This is because investor C paid a 1% premium for the bond which must be deducted from his or her total return. In total, the aggregate performance of B and C must equal the original yield to maturity that investor A earned.



This example shows that periodic returns can exceed or fall short of the yield to maturity expected based on the price paid by each investor, but in sum all of the periodic returns will match the original yield to maturity to the penny. Replace the term yield to maturity with expected returns and you have a better understanding of mean reversion.   



Equity Expected Returns

Stocks, unlike bonds, do not feature a set of contractual cash flows, defined maturity, or a perfect method of calculating expected returns. However, the same logic that dictates varying periodic returns versus forecasted returns described above for bonds influences the return profile for equities as well.



The price of a stock is, in theory, based on a series of expected cash flows. These cash flows do not accrue directly to the shareholder, with the sole exception of dividends. Regardless, valuations for equities are based on determining the appropriate premium or discount that investors are willing to pay for a company’s theoretical future cash flows, which ultimately hinge on net earnings growth.



The earnings trend growth rate for U.S. equities has been remarkably consistent over time and well correlated to GDP growth. Because the basis for pricing stocks, earnings, is a relatively fixed constant, we can use trend analysis to understand when market returns have been over and under the long-term expected return rate.



The graph below does this for the S&P 500. The orange line is the real price (inflation adjusted) of the S&P 500, the dotted line is the polynomial trend line for the index, and the green and red bars show the difference between the index and the trend.





Data Courtesy Shiller/Bloomberg



The green and red bars point to a definitive pattern of over and under performance. Periods of outperformance in green are met with periods of underperformance in red in a highly cyclical pattern. Further, the red and green periods tend to mirror each other in terms of duration and performance. We use black arrows to compare how the duration of such periods and the amount of over/under performance are similar.  



If the current period of outperformance is once again offset with a period of underperformance, as we have seen over the last 80 years, than we should expect a ten year period of underperformance. If this mean reversion were to begin shortly, then expect the inflation adjusted S&P 500 to fall 600-700 points below the trend over the next ten years, meaning the real price of the S&P index could be anywhere from 1500-2300 depending on when the reversion occurs. 



We now do similar mean reversion analysis based on valuations. The graph below compares monthly periods of Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) versus the following ten-year real returns. The yellow bar represents where valuations have been over the last year.





Data Courtesy Shiller/Bloomberg



Currently CAPE is near 30, or close to double the average of the last 100 years. If returns over the next ten years revert back to historic norms, than based on the green dotted regression trend line, we should expect annual returns of -2% for each of the next ten years. In other words, the analysis suggests the S&P 500 could be around 2300 in 2029. We caution however, valuations can slip well below historical means, thus producing further losses.



John Hussman, of Hussman Funds, takes a similar but more analytically rigorous approach. Instead of using a scatter plot as we did above, he plots his profit margin adjusted CAPE alongside the following twelve-year returns. In the chart below, note how closely forward twelve-year returns track his adjusted CAPE. The red circle highlights Hussman’s expected twelve-year annualized return.





If we expect this strong correlation to continue, his analysis suggests that annual returns of about negative 2% should be expected for the next twelve years. Again, if you discount the index by 2% a year for twelve years, you produce an estimate similar to the prior two estimates formed by our own analysis.  



None of these methods are perfect, but the story they tell is eerily similar. If mean reversion occurs in price and valuations, our expectations should be for losses over the coming ten years.



Summary

As the saying goes, you can’t predict the future, but you can prepare for it. As investors, we can form expectations based on a number of factors and adjust our risk and investment thesis as we learn more.



Mean reversion promises a period of below average returns. Whether such an adjustment happens over a few months as occurred in 1987 or takes years, is debatable. It is also uncertain when that adjustment process will occur. What is not debatable is that those aware of this inevitability can be on the lookout for signs mean reversion is upon us and take appropriate action. The analysis above offers some substantial clues, as does the recent equity market return profile. In the 20 months from May 2016 to January 2018, the S&P 500 delivered annualized total returns of 21.9%. In the 20 months since January 2018, it has delivered annualized total returns of 5.5% with significantly higher volatility. That certainly does not inspire confidence in the outlook for equity market returns.



We remind you that a bond yielding 2% for the next ten years will produce a 40%+ outperformance versus a stock losing 2% for the next ten years. Low yields may be off-putting, but our expectations for returns should be greatly tempered given the outperformance of both bonds and stocks over the years past. Said differently, expect some lean years ahead.




Tyler Durden

Wed, 09/18/2019 - 08:11


Tags

Business Finance

160
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Pair of bug reports show how VM escapes put servers at risk

A pair of newly disclosed security flaws could allow malicious virtual machine guests to break out of their hypervisor's walled gardens and execute malicious code on the host box.…

251
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[Rizza Islam and his mother, Hanan]

Almost four years ago we broke the story here at the Underground Bunker of a wild criminal case developing in Los Angeles. A woman named Hanan Islam and three of her children and others were arrested and faced felony charges for running a multi-million dollar scam involving a jackleg Scientology [...]

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New York Becomes 2nd State To Ban Flavored E-Cigarettes As 'Vaping Illness' Claims 7th Life

New York State has joined Michigan and become the second state to ban sales of most flavored e-cigarettes, CNN reports.



Just as the mysterious 'vaping illness' - which has been tied to black-market sales of marijuana vaping products - claimed its seventh life, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo delivered an executive action to ban sales of flavored vape p

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roducts that was upheld by state health officials in a late Tuesday vote.



The ban will initially stand for 90 days, but it can be renewed or extended.





Andrew Cuomo



The only two flavors that people will be able to buy are tobacco and menthol.



State Health Commissioner Dr. Howard Zucker said during the emergency meeting that officials would take a closer look at menthol to determine whether that should be banned as well.



Banning flavored products is aimed at reducing the number of teenagers and children who vape.



Zucker presented data to the state's Public Health and Health Planning Council showing that New York state high school students' use of tobacco products increased 160% from 2014 to 2018.



Meanwhile, across New York State, there have been 74 confirmed cases of people with fast-developing pneumonia, who developed symptoms after using black-market vaping products.



Of course, the vote at the planning council was hotly debated, with vape shop owners arguing that flavored products accounted for most of their sales, and that the ban would be devastating for their businesses. Others testified that the flavored products helped them quit smoking.



The state is also planning to slap a 20% tax on vaping products, Zucker said.



Meanwhile, India has become the latest country to ban e-cigarettes, banning the production and sale entirely, according to Bloomberg.



Cuomo's ban follows the Trump administration's new enforcement policy, which will require vaping companies to take all of their flavored products off the market.




Tyler Durden

Wed, 09/18/2019 - 06:30


Tags

Business Finance

199
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'Crooked' loser gives 'counseling' to Democratic candidates.
165
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This is an update on the VM’s activities in the Bahamas since I posted this:  Scientology Volunteer Ministers scam exposed once again First up, the urgent call to get a photographer to accompany the “1,000 VM’s we are activating for immediate deployment” to the Bahamas (yes, that IS what they said was happening). What could be […]
210
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<p>Synthesized voices skewing female has a long history, and became a self-fulfilling prophecy. But new technology is helping Google overcome old biases.</p><br /><p>Voice assistants have historically been female. From Siri and Alexa to Cortana and the Google Assistant, most computerized versions of administrative assistants launched with a female voice and, in most cases, a female name.</p><p>Read Full Story</p><div class="feedflare"><br /> <br /></div>
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Saudi Arabia Says It Has "Material Evidence" Tying Iran To Aramco Attack

Saudi Arabia revealed yesterday that, contrary to its initial estimates, Aramco should be able to restore oil production to 100% capacity by the end of the month. And on Wednesday morning, the kingdom's Defense Ministry said it was planning a press conference to present "material evidence" purportedly linking Tehran to the unprecedented attack on the Kingdom's oil infrastructure.

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trong>



The country's defense ministry will hold a news conference later in the day laying out new evidence. This follows reports from the US claiming that the roughly 20 missiles and drones used in the attack had been traced back to a 'launch site' in southern Iran.





Tehran has denied involvement in the Sept. 14 attacks, while the Houthi rebels in nearby Yemen have claimed credit. But Washington and Riyadh have adamantly blamed Iran, whom they have blamed for several 'attacks' in the region since the start of the year. 



Of course, this attack would represent a serious escalation from the tanker bombings and the downing of an American drone. Some have speculated that Tehran has nothing to gain from attacks like this, which only serves to provoke the West and Saudi Arabia. The Houthis have carried out several attacks within Saudi Arabia, including the bombing of an airport earlier this year, but experts say the precision of the attack on Aramco's Abqaiq plant was far more sophisticated than anything the armed movement has ever pulled off. Experts said cruise missiles were likely used to target critical components of the oil complex.



Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and several senior US officials are heading to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, as are several UN experts responsible for monitoring sanctions on Iran and Yemen, and another team of investigators that will report to the Security Council, according to Reuters.



The Defense Ministry's news conference will begin Wednesday at 10:30 am ET.




The Saudi Defense Ministry said it will hold a news conference on Wednesday at 1430 GMT to present "material evidence and Iranian weapons proving the Iranian regime’s involvement in the terrorist attack." Riyadh has already said preliminary results showed the attack did not come from Yemen.




The Iranian leadership infamously threatened that if they couldn't export crude oil, "no one would" shortly after Washington ended waivers for countries reliant on Iranian oil. The Iranian leadership has ruled out meeting with President Trump, arguing that this would only validate the administration's strategy of maximum pressure.



Other countries, including Japan, have said they haven't seen any intelligence linking the attacks to Iran. But that hasn't deterred one senior US official from asking the UN Security Council to respond.



Several senior officials in the Trump Administration assured Reuters that the Saudi investigation would yield "compelling forensic evidence" showing the location of the attack's origins.



Trump said Monday that there was "no rush" to retaliate, and that the US was working closely with Gulf states and its European allies. But the US and Saudi Arabia are pushing Iran to stop providing financial assistance to groups like the Houthis, who retain control of most of the territory in Yemen, despite years of fighting with supporters of the ousted government, which has Saudi Arabia's backing.




Tyler Durden

Wed, 09/18/2019 - 06:03


Tags

Politics
War Conflict

159
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Brit airport to extend facial recog after easyJet trial

Gatwick Airport will extend its use of facial recognition to match passengers to their passports at departure gates before they board planes.…

151
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BoomER is a Command-line interface python open-source framework fully developed in Python 3.X for post-exploitation of targets with the objective



BoomER | An Open Source Post-Exploitation Tool To Exploit Local Vulnerabilities on Latest Hacking News.

211
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Erdogan Wants To Create 'Refugee City' After Threatening To Flood Europe With 1M Syrians

Via AlmasdarNews.com,



Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced after the first meeting at the Ankara peace talks that his country will not allow terrorists to appear in the area created on the border with Syria; instead, he has proposed to turn it into a refugee city.



“For the refugees there (on th

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e Syrian border), it is necessary to create a city for them to participate in agriculture. I explained to my colleagues that it is necessary to build infrastructure for them,” Erdogan said.


Syrian refugees in Turkey. Image source: The New York Times

"It is necessary to prevent the formation of a terrorist corridor,” the Turkish president said after talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in Ankara on Monday.



The Turkish capital Ankara on Monday hosted the tripartite summit of the guarantors of the Astana process (Russia, Turkey and Iran) on the Syrian settlement.



During the meeting on Monday, the three presidents agreed to establish a constitutional committee to resolve future political disputes.




Furthermore, the three presidents discussed the future of the Idlib Governorate, but no official agreement was made to resolve their differences.



* * *


Syrian refugees in a Turkish camp. Image source: AP

Erdogan's "refugee city" idea comes after earlier this month he issued a 'with us or against us' ultimatum to the world, promising that if he couldn't have his Syria 'safe zone' (read: land grab to ethnically cleanse Syrian Kurds), he would flood Europe with one million refugees in response: 




You either support us to have a safe zone in Syria, or we will have to open the gates. Either you support us or no one should feel sorry. We would like to host 1 million refugees in the safe zone,” he said at the time. 




It remains unclear, however, whether the so-called refugee city would be on Turkish soil or "newly acquired" Syrian territory occupied by the Turkish Army. Mostly likely in Erdogan's mind it would be the former. 




Tyler Durden

Wed, 09/18/2019 - 03:30


Tags

Social Issues
Politics

200
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<p>Just a small bit of the computer is made from recycled bottles picked up from Haiti&#x2019;s streets and waterways, but it signals the possibility of changing where we get the plastics for our electronics.</p><br /><br /><br /><p>Inside a new notebook computer from HP, one component uses a new material: a blend of ABS, a standard type of plastic in computers, and PET recycled from plastic bottles that could have otherwise ended up in the ocean.</p><p>Read Full Story</p><div class="feedflare"><br /> <br />
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</div>
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Brexit: The Endgame?

With parliament suspended and the UK's EU withdrawal process in enforced stasis, the next major stop on the Brexit road map is the EU summit in Brussels on 17 and 18 October. As we have become accustomed, no one knows what will happen now.



This flowchart though, based on analysis by The Independent's John Rentoul, runs through the most likely scenarios, starting first with the question of wh

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ether the meeting bears fruit in the form of a new Brexit deal.



As Statista's Martin Armstrong explains, the quickest, but let's face it, most unlikely outcome, would be a new deal which gets approved by parliament, leading to the UK leaving the EU on the current Article 50 deadline of 31 October.



Going further down the Brexit rabbit hole, we could also see Boris Johnson refusing to request an extension and resigning, the Queen appointing Jeremy Corbyn to sort the mess out, only for a vote of no confidence motion to pass, placing the Father of the House, Ken Clarke, in temporary charge, leading to an Article 50 extension, a general election, and a possible second referendum in 2020.



Take a deep breath...





You will find more infographics at Statista




Tyler Durden

Wed, 09/18/2019 - 04:15


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Politics

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Crime spiking as migrants continue to pour into Germany
243
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<p>After years of investment in algorithmic recommendations, major tech companies are rediscovering the human touch.</p><br /><p><em>This article is part of </em>Fast Company&#x2019;<em>s editorial series </em>The New Rules of AI<em>. More than 60 years into the era of artificial intelligence, the world&#x2019;s largest technology companies are just beginning to crack open what&#x2019;s possible with AI&#x2014;and grapple with how it might change our future. Click here to read all the stories in the series.</em></p&
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gt;<p>Read Full Story</p><div class="feedflare"><br /> <br /></div>
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Russia Will Be The First To Deploy Hypersonic Missiles On Submarines

As far as hypersonic development, the Russian Navy is far outpacing the US Navy. Russia is expected to be the first country to deploy hypersonic cruise missiles on submarines, reported Forbes. 



Earlier this year Russian sources told Forbes that submarine-launched hypersonic missile tests would be conducted in 2020.



The missile in focus is call

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ed 3M22 Zircon, a scramjet-powered maneuvering anti-ship hypersonic cruise missile that will be launched from the latest nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine called the K-561 Kazan. 





Zircon is a winged hypersonic cruise missile that can travel at Mach 8 to Mach 9 (6,090 to 6,851 mph). The missile's range is estimated at 620 miles, can already be launched from aircraft, ships, ground-based launch systems, and soon to be submarines. 



Forbes said the Russian Navy is going through an unprecedented transformation, ever since it started launching cruise missiles from submarines into Syria. Before that, Russia developed its cruise missiles, fired from submarines, for anti-ship operations. 




"For much of the Cold War, the missiles carried by Russian submarines were focused on hitting ships at sea, particularly the US Navy's formidable aircraft carriers. It was not until the conflict in Syria that Russia began using submarine launched cruise missiles in a similar way to the US Navy's Tomahawk missile; as a long-range surgical strike weapon." 




The Tomahawk Land Attack Missile is primarily launched from submarines and ships by the US Navy and Royal Navy. It flies at Mach 0.75 (575 mph) with a range 1,550 miles. 



Russia's new missile is so advanced that upon it being deployed by submarines, it would create a significant power shift away from the US Navy. The shift in power would add a new layer of deterrence for Russia that would have the US Navy very concerned, that is because the US Navy doesn't have any countermeasures against hypersonic weapons. 





A submarine-launched missile test of the Zircon could pave the way for deployment in the near term. 



Forbes said by 2030 Russia could have at least eight submarines armed with Zircon missiles, and 17 by 2040. 



And in a bizarre report earlier this month, President Vladimir Putin revealed he was ready to sell the US some of Russia's hypersonic missiles, if President Trump was willing to return to serious strategic arms talks after the US-backed out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). 



Last year Russia's defense ministry touted a range of experimental weapons it said could counter and evade any US anti-aircraft defense measures, including a nuclear-powered missile that could traverse the globe endlessly. 



For a glimpse of a land-based launch of a Russian hypersonic missile, Russia-24 published a video from the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation that shows a successful launch of a new hypersonic interceptor missile.




So the question we ask: Is Russia winning the hypersonic development race?




Tyler Durden

Wed, 09/18/2019 - 02:45


Tags

Politics

192
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Tired: SQLi. Expired: Format string exploits. Hired: Anyone who can port code from C/C++

On Tuesday, the Common Weakness Enumeration (CWE) team from MITRE, a non-profit focused on information security for government, industry and academia, published its list of the CWE Top 25 Most Dangerous Software Errors.…

216
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New Zealanders Face 5 Years In Jail For Not Handing-In Banned Firearms

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,



Following a ban on virtually all semi-automatic firearms, New Zealanders face 5 years in jail if they refuse to hand them in.





A France 24 report on the government’s new buyback scheme showed a line of gun owners wilfully giving up their guns in response to the Christ

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church massacre earlier this year.



This despite the fact that the shooter himself said in his own manifesto that provoking mass gunfiscation was one of his intended goals. Mission accomplished.



Since the buyback scheme began, 19,000 firearms have been handed in. Most of the guns seen being handed in looked like ordinary rifles, not AR-15s.




Inspector Terry Van Dillen said he “accepted” that some people would be emotional giving up their guns due to them having been handed down by families for generations.



I’m sure any potential future mass shooters are gleefully handing in their firearms to police as I write this.



New Zealand’s gang members even publicly announced they would refuse to hand in any of the “banned” firearms.



Disarming responsible people and making them easier targets for actual criminals.



Genius idea.



*  *  *



My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.




Tyler Durden

Tue, 09/17/2019 - 23:05


Tags

War Conflict

232
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Photos Emerge Of New Supersonic Spy Drone At Chinese Military Parade Rehearsal

New images have surfaced on social media earlier this week revealing China's supersonic spy drone rolling through the streets of Beijing during a rehearsal ahead of a parade to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.



The rehearsal was conducted on Sunday and lasted through Monday morning. Observers acr

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oss the city were able to take pictures of advanced weaponry and share them on social media platforms, domestically and internationally.





The photos sparked a firestorm of conversation on social media platforms, partly due to an unassembled supersonic DR-8 reconnaissance drone was spotted on the back of a military truck. The drone has never been seen before in public.



The South China Morning Post said the DR-8 would play a vital role if a shooting war breaks out with the US in the South China Sea or Western Pacific.



Rick Joe, a Chinese military analyst and author at The Diplomat, tweeted that the DR-8 has similar characteristics to a Lockheed D-21 supersonic drone that retired in the early 1970s. 




The DR-8 reconnaissance drone will allow China to coordinate strikes on US vessels with DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missiles, and the DF-26 ballistic missiles.



Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military commentator, was cited by the Post as saying the DR-8 has a maximum speed of Mach 3.35 (2,570 mph).



Shanghai-based military commentator Shi Lao told the Post that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has been testing the drone extensively, says it can easily reach Guam where a major US military installation resides.




"In fact, this UAV [the DR-8] entered into service a while ago," Shi said.




Another military observer on social media said the drone was "the biggest surprise so far."




Also spotted in the rehearsal was China's hypersonic DF-17 missile, which can penetrate American missile defense networks through evasive maneuvering while traveling between Mach 5 (3,836 mph) and Mach 10 (7,672 mph).



Zhijun Cai, deputy director of the military parade leading group office, told local media that the weapons in the parade are all active and deployed with the PLA.



A previously undisclosed main battle tank of the PLA that entered service last year was also spotted.




"There will be some exciting new weaponry on show at the parade this year," Zhou said.




Hundreds of thousands of people are expected to attend the celebrations in Tiananmen Square on October 1, which will showcase how China, the rising power of the world, is ready for a fight with the US.




Tyler Durden

Tue, 09/17/2019 - 23:25


Tags

War Conflict
Politics

246
38 Views
Georgia man defends property from masked intruders thanks to 2nd Amendment
205
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<p>The second year of its Call for Code contest features solutions from better mapping for aid deliveries to better health monitoring for first responders.</p><br /><p>After a natural disaster hits, emergency responders can be overwhelmed with how to efficiently render aid. It&#x2019;s not just the sheer volume of calls&#x2014;or worse, a deafening silence if the communication grid goes down. There&#x2019;s confusion about who needs help, where, and how to prioritize those needs to reach people safely.</p><p>Read Full Story</p><div class
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The Magnitskiy Myth Exploded

Authored by Craig Murray,



The conscientious judges of the European Court of Human Rights published a judgement a fortnight ago which utterly exploded the version of events promulgated by Western governments and media in the case of the late Mr Magnitskiy.



Yet I can find no truthful report of the judgement in the mainstream media at all.





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The myth is that Magnitskiy was an honest rights campaigner and accountant who discovered corruption by Russian officials and threatened to expose it, and was consequently imprisoned on false charges and then tortured and killed. A campaign over his death was led by his former business partner, hedge fund manager Bill Browder, who wanted massive compensation for Russian assets allegedly swindled from their venture. The campaign led to the passing of the Magnitskiy Act in the United States, providing powers for sanctioning individuals responsible for human rights abuses, and also led to matching sanctions being developed by the EU.



However the European Court of Human Rights has found, in judging a case brought against Russia by the Magnitskiy family, that the very essence of this story is untrue.



They find that there was credible evidence that Magnitskiy was indeed engaged in tax fraud, in conspiracy with Browder, and he was rightfully charged. The ECHR also found there was credible evidence that Magnitskiy was indeed a flight risk so he was rightfully detained. And most crucially of all, they find that there was credible evidence of tax fraud by Magnitskiy and action by the authorities “years” before he started to make counter-accusations of corruption against officials investigating his case.



This judgement utterly explodes the accepted narrative, and does it very succinctly:




The applicants argued that Mr Magnitskiy’s arrest had not been based on a reasonable suspicion of a

crime and that the authorities had lacked impartiality as they had actually wanted to force him to

retract his allegations of corruption by State officials. The Government argued that there had been

ample evidence of tax evasion and that Mr Magnitskiy had been a flight risk.



The Court reiterated the general principles on arbitrary detention, which could arise if the

authorities had complied with the letter of the law but had acted with bad faith or deception. It

found no such elements in this case: the enquiry into alleged tax evasion which had led to

Mr Magnitskiy’s arrest had begun long before he had complained of fraud by officials.
The decision

to arrest him had only been made after investigators had learned that he had previously applied for

a UK visa, had booked tickets to Kyiv, and had not been residing at his registered address.



Furthermore, the evidence against him, including witness testimony, had been enough to satisfy an

objective observer that he might have committed the offence in question
. The list of reasons given

by the domestic court to justify his subsequent detention had been specific and sufficiently detailed.



The Court thus rejected the applicants’ complaint about Mr Magnitskiy’s arrest and subsequent

detention as being manifestly ill-founded.




“Manifestly ill founded”.



The mainstream media ran reams of reporting about the Magnitskiy case at the time of the passing of the Magnitskiy Act. I am offering a bottle of Lagavulin to anybody who can find me an honest and fair MSM report of this judgement reflecting that the whole story was built on lies.



Magnitskiy did not uncover corruption then get arrested on false charges of tax evasion. He was arrested on credible charges of tax evasion, and subsequently started alleging corruption. That does not mean his accusations were unfounded. It does however cast his arrest in a very different light.



Where the Court did find in favour of Magnitskiy’s family is that he had been deprived of sufficient medical attention and subject to brutality while in jail. I have no doubt this is true. Conditions in Russian jails are a disgrace, as is the entire Russian criminal justice system. There are few fair trials and conviction rates remain well over 90% – the judges assume that if you are being prosecuted, the state wants you locked up, and they comply. This is one of many areas where the Putin era will be seen in retrospect as lacking in meaningful and needed domestic reform. Sadly what happened to Magnitskiy on remand was not special mistreatment. It is what happens in Russian prisons. The Court also found subsequent Magnitskiy’s conviction for tax evasion was unsafe, but only on the (excellent) grounds that it was wrong to convict him posthumously.



The first use of the Magnitsky Act was to sanction those subject to Browder’s vendetta in his attempts to regain control of vast fortunes in Russian assets. But you may be surprised to hear I do not object to the legislation, which in principle is a good thing – although the chances of Western governments bringing sanctions to bear on the worst human rights abusers are of course minimal. Do not expect it to be used against Saudi Arabia, Bahrain or Israel any time soon.



*  *  *



Unlike his adversaries including the Integrity Initiative, the 77th Brigade, Bellingcat, the Atlantic Council and hundreds of other warmongering propaganda operations, Craig's blog has no source of state, corporate or institutional finance whatsoever. It runs entirely on voluntary subscriptions from its readers – many of whom do not necessarily agree with the every article, but welcome the alternative voice, insider information and debate. Subscriptions to keep Craig's blog going are gratefully received.




Tyler Durden

Tue, 09/17/2019 - 23:45


Tags

Law Crime

183
64 Views
by Michael Krieger

Ryan Murphy, an economist at Southern Methodist University, recently published a working paper in which he ranked each of the states by the predominance of — there’s no nice way to put it — psychopaths. The winner? Washington in a walk. In fact, the capital scored higher on Murphy’s scale than the next two runners-up combined.

“I had previously written on politicians and psychopathy, but I had no expectation D.C. would stand out as much as it does,” Murphy wrote in an email…

On a national level, it raises the troubling question as to what it means to li
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ve in a country whose institutions are set up to reward some very dubious human traits. Like it or not, we’re more likely than not to wind up with some alarming personalities in positions of power.


Read Entire Article »
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Does Bolton's Firing Open New Potential For A Russia-China-USA Alliance?

Authored by Matthew Ehret via The Strategic Culture Foundation,



With President Trump’s long overdue firing of John Bolton on September 10th, a window into the battle between neocon zombies infesting the White House and Donald Trump was made visible once more. As much as people enjoy oversimplifying American politics- clumping all “right wing politi

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cians” together as ideological war mongers, the reality as showcased again this week, is that things are more nuanced and that President Trump is not just another neocon.



To begin to appreciate this fight, it is useful to conduct a short survey of the 3 weeks of fanatical neocon maneuvers led by Bolton, Defense Secretary Esper, Sen. Marco Rubio, and VP Pence. These maneuvers were instigated by two “unforgivable sins” conducted by Trump when the latter: 1) stated his wish that Russia be re-introduced to the G7 on August 21 stating “I think it would be better to have Russia inside the tent than outside the tent”, and 2) his defense of President Xi Jinping as “a great leader” who must resolve the Hong Kong chaos without American interference. These initiatives had to come undone at all costs.



Rubio, Esper, Pence and Bolton Push For War

First, neocon war hawk Marco Rubio ranted at length in the Washington Post calling for the US government to intervene into the Hong Kong mess which itself has been stirred up by American intelligence outfits like the CIA-affiliated National Endowment for Democracy.



In his September 3 editorial, Rubio stated “the administration should make clear that the United States can respond flexibly and robustly in Hong Kong” and called for the Congress to pass the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act co-sponsored by Rubio, Ben Cartin (Democrat), James Risch (Republican), and Robert Menendez (Democrat). The act, if passed would force the US government to fully support the Hong Kong color revolutionaries while sanctioning all



Chinese officials who “have undermined the city’s autonomy”.



Just before Rubio’s belligerent words went public, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper had already exclaimed publically that America had to confront China directly in support of US allies in the Asia-Pacific over territorial issues and containment of China’s growth. Esper shocked many Asian and western statesmen alike when he stated that there is a “coming shift” from “low intensity conflict… to high intensity conflicts against competitors such as Russia and China”.



In this surreal relay race to Armageddon, Vice-President Mike Pence next took the baton during his September 2 speech in Warsaw, Poland alongside Polish President Andrzej Duda. It was here that Pence here took the opportunity to demonize Russia when he said “with its efforts to meddle in elections across Europe and around the world, now is the time for us to remain vigilant about the intentions and the actions taken by Russia.” Pence went further to state without any evidence that “Russian forces still illegally occupy large parts of Georgia and Ukraine.”



Pence was joined in Poland by ex-US National Security Advisor John Bolton, who ended his tour of four former Soviet nations begun a week earlier (Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and Poland). Beginning his tour on August 26 in Kiev, Bolton took the opportunity to attack Ukraine’s growing relationship with China which is on the verge of finalizing a deal to purchase the beleaguered Ukrainian aerospace giant Motor Sich. Ever since the Russian sanctions began, the Ukrainian company has lost over 40% of its markets with the Chinese providing the only chance for its salvation. Exhibiting his usual flare for hypocrisy, Bolton attacked China saying: “The Chinese are not afraid to use corruption – or to put it bluntly, bribes – to get the decisions they want”, calling for Ukraine to reject the deal.



The New Silk Road: A Nightmare for all Neocons

It is important to note that Ukraine signed an action plan to join the Chinese-led Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st century maritime Silk Road already 18 months ago with recent plans to accelerate that cooperation. Ever since the BRI and Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union increasingly began merging into a unified program, western NATO-philes have realized that their years of hard work to de-rail a pro-Eurasian alliance in Ukraine could easily come undone.



Having made a mess of Ukraine, Bolton then headed to Belarus, and Moldova pushing an anti-Russian line, ending his trip in Poland where he solidified the location for the additional American 1000 troops to be added to the 4500 US troops already operating in the nation- many of whom operate America’s anti-Russian ABM system.



The ABM system which has been built up around Russia’s southern perimeter and which Poland plays a key role, is part of a larger agenda identified by the Russian government as “Full Spectrum Dominance” and seeks a unipolar nuclear first strike monopoly. Poland’s only hope to avoid being caught in the middle of a nuclear exchange between NATO and Russia is to break free of this program and accept China’s offers to join the BRI which experts have recently stated would make Poland “The Buckle of the Belt and Road”.



It was not lost on Bolton and Pence that Poland is also a key member of the 17+1 Central and Eastern European nations + China group which has deeply tied itself to the BRI while Belarus is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union- making their allegiance to the western technocracy more fragile than some would like to admit.



Breaking Free of the Self-Destructive Psychology of Empire

When objectively assessing the psychological state of the western oligarchy at this particular moment in history, it must be concluded that certain forces operating on behalf of the City of London and Wall Street would go to any length– not excluding nuclear war- in defense of their failing system. There is thus no solution to this dark chapter of the human experience unless:



The bankruptcy of the financial system now sitting atop a $800 trillion derivatives bubble is fully acknowledged such that a serious discussion centered on bankruptcy re-organization can finally occur.



That the neocons and other deep state operatives be flushed from power- following Bolton into the trash bin of history.



That the need for a new system premised upon cooperation and long term development is adopted post-haste. This new system would have to contain certain non-negotiable features such as nationally-guided capital controls to prevent speculative fluctuations of currencies and other vital resources, the separation of investment banking from normal commercial banking functions as was done under the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act (repealed in 1999 in the USA), and long term credit generation for major infrastructure projects.



The BRI as the Foundation for a New System

Russia, China and India are increasingly becoming the foundation for a new multipolar world order founded upon the respect for sovereign nations and improvement of conditions of life of the people driven by Putin’s Far East/Arctic vision and China’s New Silk Road which are winning over dozens of nations to a new paradigm of political economy.



For all of his problems, Donald Trump has maintained a generally consistent (albeit flawed) intention to re-build American industry and infrastructure after decades of post-industrial decay and combat the Deep State which has worked on overtime to overthrow his presidency. On top of this, he has seriously worked to keep the nation out of foreign entanglements while avoiding any new wars (a first for any president in over 50 years). Most importantly, he has attempted repeatedly to create positive relations with Russia and China.





Whether the neo-cons infesting the US administration successfully subvert this potential for a new paradigm which would be unstoppable under a Russia-China-India-USA alliance, or not remains an open question, but Trump’s firing of Bolton will hopefully represent a new purge of war mongering sociopaths while opening the door to a new foreign policy doctrine.




Tyler Durden

Tue, 09/17/2019 - 21:45


Tags

Politics

246
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A Pennsylvania former cop and veteran pleaded guilty to possession of the most horrific child pornography and distributing it for over a decade.

Souderton, PA — A former Army veteran and police officer was convicted on multiple counts for being a distributor and possessing over 4,000 images of the most disturbing child pornography.

Matthew Laver, 38, of Souderton, PA was violating the laws he was sworn to uphold while taking a paycheck as a law enforcement officer.

Even though Laver had quit the police force in Montgomery County three years before being arrested and convic
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ted, prosecutors were quick to point out his addiction to kiddie porn dated back to his time in the Army and throughout his service as a law enforcement officer.


Read Entire Article »
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<p>This insurance agent shares how to turn unsatisfied business partners into your biggest champions.</p><br /><p>The calls began in 2010, urging us to upgrade. They even threatened to stop service and support if we didn&#x2019;t upgrade to the latest version of our agency management software. The sales rep from Vertafore was pressuring us, and we were getting annoyed. It&#x2019;s not the experience you&#x2019;d expect from a company we&#x2019;d been doing business with for nearly 12 years.</p><p>Read Full Story</p><div class="f
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eedflare"><br /> <br /></div>
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Mutual Fund Chaos After Investments In Opioid Companies Plunge

Earlier on Monday morning, we detailed how the embattled US drugmaker Purdue Pharma filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, a long-anticipated move aimed at shielding the company and its owners, the Sackler family, from financial ruin as they shoulder the brunt of the blame for igniting the opioid crisis with their aggressive marketing tactics of OxyContin.



Now we're starting to

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hear additional reports, specifically in recent filings, that the bust of Purdue and other big pharmaceuticals, thanks to nearly 2,000 litigants, has resulted in at least five mutual-fund companies reporting their returns have been affected after they made risky bets in pharmaceutical companies with opioid-related businesses.





Nick Mazing, the research director at investment research platform Sentieo Inc., told The Wall Street Journal that the number of times companies had mentioned opioids in their annual shareholder reports is up 300% in last eight years.



Walmart Inc., which operates pharmacies across the country, was forced to start disclosing opioid-related litigation as a risk in early 2018, and insurance company The Travelers Companies, Inc. began to disclose opioid-related litigation earlier this year.



Mazing said 55 companies mentioned opioids in their annual shareholder reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission as a significant risk factor. This is up from 41 last year and 37 in 2017.



At a time when some 130 Americans are dying every day from opioid-related overdoses, drugmakers like Purdue Pharma, Mallinckrodt, and Endo International are being sued by thousands of municipalities across the country and even individual states.





Mutal funds are worried that their investments in these drugmakers could be severely impacted, as those companies are now paying hundreds of millions of dollars, if not billions, to settle with litigants. In some cases, like Purdue, these companies are filing for bankruptcy.



Miller Value Partners LLC said its Miller Opportunity Trust fund had lousy performance in the last six months, mainly because it had too much exposure to Endo and Teva, two companies that have been cited as significant contributors in the opioid crisis.




"We considered the prospective opioid liabilities but judged them manageable," Miller Value said in its semiannual report for the period ending June 30. "We didn't anticipate just how myopically focused the market would become on this point, which was our main error."




Ohio National Fund said it cut Teva from a foreign-stock portfolio because the shares have been in a bear market for more than one year after a settlement of an opioid-related lawsuit.



Penn Series Funds Inc., an affiliate of Penn Mutual Life Insurance Co., said the 91% crash in Teva's stock in the last 50 months has absolutely "decimated" the company's midcap value fund.





American Funds Insurance Series, which is affiliated with Capital Research & Management Co., and Franklin Templeton Investments were others who saw depressed returns thanks to their exposure to opioid-related pharmaceutical companies.




Tyler Durden

Tue, 09/17/2019 - 22:05


Tags

Business Finance

168
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House Judiciary Committee attempts to grill Corey Lewandowski devolve into madness.
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Since Bill and Hillary Clinton left the White House in 2001, they have turned political fame into a personal fortune, raking in more than $240 million, according to a FORBES analysis of 15 years of their tax returns.

Bill made most of the money, earning $189 million by writing books, giving speeches, consulting private companies and advising billionaire Ron Burkle.

Days after his presidency ended, he earned $125,000 for a speech at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. in New York, according to a financial disclos
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ure form Hillary filed as a senator in 2002. It was the first of hundreds of paid speeches that collectively made him an estimated $106 million over 15 years.

In 2004 he published his bestselling memoir My Life, one of the former president’s four titles. Clinton earned an estimated $38 million as an author from 2001 to 2015.

Infographic by Nick DeSantis, Forbes Staff
Read Entire Article »
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<p>The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, a new, independent body that assesses how ready we are for a worldwide emergency, just released its first health preparedness report. Verdict: Not looking good.</p><br /><p>It could happen at any moment&#x2014;a pandemic with the potential to sweep across the globe in just 36 hours, wiping out 80 million people and irreversibly changing society. It would start like any other viral epidemic, with one infected person passing an airborne pathogen along to the next, until we hit a Black Death-level catastrophe that destroys a
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full 5% of the global economy.</p><p>Read Full Story</p><div class="feedflare"><br /> <br /></div>
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Organizers Of "Storm Area 51" Event In Legal Battle Over Potential "Humanitarian Disaster"

Authored by John Vibes via The Mind Unleashed blog,



In late June, a college student named Matty Roberts created a Facebook event called “Storm Area 51: They Can’t Stop Us All,” after watching a Netflix documentary about the secret military base.



For some unknown reason, the event went viral and quickly gathered millions o

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f followers, who spent half of the summer making jokes and sharing memes about invading Area 51. Roberts never actually had any intentions of risking his life or freedom to enter the top-secret facility and was forced to clarify that the whole thing was just a joke after multiple warnings from various government agencies.



Still, having the captive audience of millions of people on an event page is an opportunity that would be foolish to pass up, so Roberts decided to plan a festival, called Alienstock, in a nearby town instead.



The event was scheduled to take place on September 20th—just a few days from now.





Roberts partnered with a number of other people and organizations to help make the event a success, including a nearby hotel, the Little A’Le’Inn.



Unfortunately, it seems that some of the organizers have had differing opinions on the details of the event and have now split and gone their separate ways.



Initially, the festival was scheduled to take place in Rachel, the town closest to Area 51, but there were some clear indications that the local community was less than happy about the idea. Most notably, a warning posted on Rachel’s town website said that the scene “could get ugly” if incoming curiosity seekers were to trespass on the property of local residents.



After these issues began to arise, the team had a difference of perspective about how to go about handling it. Roberts wanted to move the event to a safer location in Las Vegas, which has proper facilities for the 8,000 people expected to attend, while the owners of the Little A’Le’Inn wanted to keep the event at their location, insisting that they would be able to handle a large crowd.



A statement on the Alienstock website reads:




“Due to the lack of infrastructure, planning, and risk management, along with concerns raised for the safety of the expected 10,000+ attendees, we decided to transition Alienstock away from the Rachel festival towards a safer alternative. We are officially disconnecting from the Little A’LE’INN, Rachel NV, and AlienStock’s affiliation with them.



We will no longer offer our logo, social media, website or Matty Roberts likeness or scheduled appearance. In short, the relationship has ended permanently. AlienStock will be moving to a safe, clean secure area in Downtown Las Vegas as an alternative. We are not interested in, nor will we tolerate any involvement in a FYREFEST 2.0. We foresee a possible humanitarian disaster in the works, and we can’t participate in any capacity at this point.”




Soon after, the notice on the homepage of Rachel’s website clarified that Alienstock had been moved to Las Vegas because it was not properly organized. The notice suggested that curiosity seekers should avoid Rachel entirely, however, other organizers are insisting that an event will still take place at the original location in Rachel. They also claim that local residents are happy to have the visitors.



In a statement sent to the Mind Unleashed, the team representing the Little A’Le’Inn said:




Amidst false accusations and rumors, the residents of Rachel Nevada are excited to announce that Alienstock is, in fact, still happening at the Little A’Le’Inn on September 19 – 22nd. With thousands slated to attend and artists traveling in from all over the country, this is sure to be a once-in-this-universe experience.”



“Alienstock has been thoroughly planned, approved, and locally supported. All permits, permissions, and down-payments have been made and correctly filed,” the statement continued.




Earlier this week, two men were arrested near Area 51 while attempting to capture footage of the facility. The men were reportedly two Dutch YouTubers, who flew all the way from the Netherlands for the “Storm Area 51” gathering.



*  *  *



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Tyler Durden

Tue, 09/17/2019 - 21:05
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